January 11-13 Box Office Predictions

The first weekend of 2013 had surprising earnings with Texas Chainsaw 3D, but great nonetheless. It won’t hold the top spot a second time, I think that’ll go to Zero Dark Thirty. Here are the  new releases for the weekend:

A Haunted House

A Haunted House

Plot: Malcolm and Keisha move into their dream home, but soon learn a demon also resides there. When Kisha becomes possessed, Malcolm – determined to keep his sex life on track – turns to a priest, a psychic, and a team of ghost-busters for help.

Marlon Wayans brings us a feature that parodies popular horror films months before Scary Movie 5, a series he and his brother started. I’m not sure if Wayans is attempting to reinvent the parody genre, but if anyone can do it, it might just be him. Even though I laughed once at the trailer. It won’t be as big a hit as Scary Movie, but it’ll certainly be better than anything those idiots Jason Friedberg and Aaron Seltzer (Disaster MovieMeet the Spartans) can dish out to the unsuspecting public. The opening weekends of the Scary Movie have faced a range between $20.5 million (with the second installment) and $48.1 million (with the third installment). And the Friedberg/Seltzer films’ opening weekend range from $5.8 million (Disaster Movie) to $18.6 million (Epic Movie). Anyway, I think A Haunted House will gross higher than Disaster Movie, but lower than Epic Movie. It’ll be somewhere in the middle.

A.H.H. Box Office Prediction: $10, 500, 000

Gangster Squad

Gangster Squad

Plot: A chronicle of the LAPD’s fight to keep East Coast Mafia types out of Los Angeles in the 1940s and 50s.

The real attraction of Gangster Squad is its true crime story vibe and its ensemble cast (including Ryan Gosling, Josh Brolin, Emma Stone, Sean Penn). It will also be interesting to see comedy director Ruben Fleischer (30 Minutes or Less and Zombieland) direct this cast, and what he’d do with this 1949 crime drama. A similar film to this, American Gangster, grossed $43.5 million its opening weekend and the other crime drama in theaters right now, Jack Reacher, grossed $15.2 million its opening weekend. I don’t think it’s very realistic that it would gross close to American Gangster’s number, but it will most likely make more money than Jack Reacher. 

G.S. Box Office Prediction: $21, 000, 000

Quartet

Quartet

Plot: At a home for retired opera singers, the annual concert to celebrate Verdi’s birthday is disrupted by the arrival of Jean, an eternal diva and the former wife of one of the residents.

The limited release of the weekend, Quartet comes to a mere two theaters. This is Dustin Hoffman’s directorial debut, and it is a comedy that mostly appeals to adults that makes me think of 2011’s Hope Springs and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.

Quartet Box Office Prediction: $16, 000

Zero Dark Thirty

Zero Dark Thirty

Plot: A chronicle of the decade-long hunt for al-Qaeda terrorist leader Osama bin Laden after the September 2001 attacks, and his death at the hands of the Navy S.E.A.L. Team 6 in May, 2011.

It sure is the greatest manhunt in history.  Zero Dark Thirty also seems like an incredible film to watch unfold. Kathryn Bigelow is the director to take on this project. It’s already made $4.6 million, and now it’s going wide. Right after the Oscar nominations are being released tomorrow. The Hurt Locker grossed $17 million, but it wasn’t a very wide release. This is going to gross more in its (wide) opening weekend than T.H.L. grossed in its entire run.

Z.D.T. Box Office Prediction: $23, 500, 000

The holdovers of Django Unchained and Les Mis shouldn’t drop severely because of the Oscar nominations tomorrow. Here’s how I see the top 10:

Top 10 Box Office Predictions

Title/Prediction/Studio/Rotten Tomatoes Score

1. Zero Dark Thirty/ $23, 500, 000/ Sony/ 94%
2. Gangster Squad/ $21, 000, 000/ Warner Bros./ 55%
3. Django Unchained/ $16, 250, 000/ Weinstein Company/ 89%
4. Texas Chainsaw 3D/ $15, 000, 000/ Lionsgate/ 19%
5. Les Misérables/ $14, 000, 000/ Universal/ 70%
6. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey/ $12, 000, 000/ Warner Bros./ 65%
7. A Haunted House/ $10, 500, 000/ ORF
8. Parental Guidance/ $6, 000, 000/ Fox/ 19%
9. Jack Reacher/ $5, 900, 000/ Paramount/ 61%
10. This is 40/ $5, 350, 000/ Universal/ 51%

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