January 18-21 Box Office Predictions

The possible leader of the pack this weekend

Broken City

Broken City 

Mama

Mama

 

The Last Stand

The Last Stand

 

 

 

 

And Silver Linings Playbook goes wide to 2500 theaters this weekend.

There are three new films opening this weekend: Broken City, Mama and The Last Stand. The third weekend in 2013, and the first long weekend, may actually see a certified fresh film (at least for the wide releases, and not including Zero Dark Thirty). The question: which film is it going to be? Broken City is a star-studded (the cast includes Mark Wahlberg, Russell Crowe, Catherine Zeta-Jones) crime drama with a solid director, Allen Hughes (From Hell, The Book of Eli). Allen usually teams up with his brother for directing films, so I’m curious to see how he’ll do on his own. The writer of the feature, Brian Tucker, is a first-timer who has two other projects in development. The story follows ex-cop Billy Taggart in a city filled with injustice, as he seeks redemption and revenge after being double-crossed and framed by its most powerful figure: Mayor Nicholas Hostetler. The solid cast, good story and good director makes a recipe for a great film, or the polar opposite.

Mama seems like a chilling supernatural horror story that will hopefully be much better than Texas Chainsaw 3D. And hopefully it wouldn’t be too scary. With a big star like Jessica Chastain and Guillermo Del Toro presenting it will attract a good audience, at least those who are courageous enough to see it. While it doesn’t seem like a completely original work, it seems like an interesting experience. The story follows Annabel and Lucas, a couple who raise Lucas’ young nieces are they were alone in the forest for five years, but they might have had spooky company. I doubt this will get an opening weekend number of Sinister‘s $18 million or The Woman in Black‘s $20 million, but it might make a bit more than The Rite‘s $14.79 million, but no less than Insidious‘ $13.27 million. Since Del Toro’s name is on this, I’m hoping it turns out to be good and not rather crappy like Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark.

The Last Stand follows a sheriff and an inexperienced staff who try to stop a drug cartel leader as he busts out of a courthouse and races to the Mexican border. This feature seems like a sort-of mindless, but extremely fun action flick. Schwarzenegger might also add another action hero to his filmography. Arnie’s last starring role was 2003’s Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines, a film that grossed $44 million in its opening weekend. This won’t gross anywhere near that number, but it will realistically gross near Collateral Damage’s $15 million. Since 2003, Arnie has done three cameos, so everyone go see his movie and welcome him back to the silver screen.

Here’s how I see the top 10:

Title/Prediction/Studio

1. Zero Dark Thirty/ $18, 200, 000/ Sony
2. Broken City/ $18, 000, 000/ Fox
3. Mama/ $16, 000, 000/ Universal
4. The Last Stand/ $14, 000, 000/ Lionsgate
5. Silver Linings Playbook/ $13, 000, 000/ Weinstein Co.
6. Gangster Squad/ $11, 800, 000/ Warner Bros.
7. A Haunted House/ $7, 250, 000/ ORF
8. Django Unchained/ $7, 000, 000/ Weinstein Co.
9. Les Misérables/ $6, 800, 000/ Universal
10. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey/ $4, 500, 000/ Warner Bros.

 

 

 

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