March 1-3 Box Office Predictions

The new releases

21 and Over

21 and Over

Jack the Giant Slayer

Jack the Giant Slayer

The Last Exorcism Part II

The Last Exorcism Part II

Phantom

Phantom

21 and Over
21 and Over is getting a large advertising campaign, with the name of Todd Phillips being not-so-subtle on the film’s poster. He is the producer of The Hangover and Project X, and this very much seems like a mash between the two. The Hangover opened to $44.9 million, while Project X opened to $21 million last March. Project X was a fairly large success, much to my bewilderment, and this will probably come out a little shy of its number (it’s being targeted at basically everyone between the ages of 17 and 25) – it seems like it will be The Hangover and Project X, and unlike Project X, we’ve actually seen a few of these actors before. This could be a very hit-and-miss comedy, but it’s sure to grab a solid teen audience. By the end of the weekend, Jeff Chang could be a teen household name (like it isn’t already).

Jack the Giant Slayer will make the biggest splash this weekend, but it might just drop off the grid by this time next weekend, when Oz the Great and the Powerful comes out. Much like last March’s John Carter that opened to $30 million, this is a big-budget production, and it might be yet another bomb… Fairy tale re-imaginings often open well, like Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters opening to $19.6 million, and Snow White and the Huntsman opening to $56.2 million. It could go either way for this one, it really all depends on how many people are willing to pay $13 to see giants and humans fighting in a giant war.

I’m really sick and tired of seeing the TV spot for The Last Exorcism Part II playing over and over and over. Since the found footage sub-genre’s trend has died down, this took away the found footage charm of the first, and will now just be a regular shot flick. The first opened to $20.6 million, but this won’t do nearly as well. Demonic possession is getting to be a very tedious sub-genre, and I’m not convinced that many will like to run out to see this, but it might do a bit better than last weekend’s Dark Skies $8.2 million.

Much like the covert mission cloaked in mystery Phantom depicts, this film is coming to 2000 theaters pretty incognito. I have not seen any trailers of this at the theater, nor have I seen any TV spots. I’m convinced that hardly anyone knows this is coming to theaters. This reminds me  of last year’s Red Tails, a film that opened to $18.7 million, and one that didn’t have a large marketing campaign. Of course, my memory might be horrible and I just don’t remember seeing any trailers for it. This film is a sort-of claustrophobic submarine thriller, and films like this (Crimson Tide opened to $18.6, The Hunt for Red October to $17.1) open to an average of $12.56 million. This won’t come remotely close to those numbers, nor will it get a total gross close to those numbers. My prediction for this is $2.3 million.

Here’s how I see the top 10: 

Title: Prediction

1. Jack the Giant Slayer: $26, 500, 000
2. 21 and Over: $15, 500, 000
3. The Last Exorcism Part II: $10, 200, 000
4. Identity Thief: $8, 400, 000
5. Snitch: $6, 500, 000
6. Escape from Planet Earth: $6, 300, 000
7. Safe Haven: $5, 500, 000
8. Silver Linings Playbook: $5, 150, 000
9. A Good Day to Die Hard: $4, 900, 000
10. Dark Skies: $3, 700, 000

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4 Responses to March 1-3 Box Office Predictions

  1. GaryLee828 says:

    You haven’t been keeping up with the box-office numbers, have you? Everything is bombing this weekend! lol.

    • Daniel Prinn says:

      Hahaha, I know! But I had already made my numbers and I wasn’t going to cheat by rigging my predictions after I saw Friday’s numbers 😉 I’m probably going to be off by about $12 million for the new releases…

  2. The Vern says:

    Jack and The Giant Slayer looks to be the big winner of the weekend. Movies like 21 and Over will do good at the box office, but it tends to do better at home. Cool post

    • Daniel Prinn says:

      So it seems! Yeah, agreed about 21 and Over. I might either wait for the DVD or watch it at a local two dollar theatre… It seems that ’21’ is disappointing this weekend, it might not even make $10 mil. Thanks for stopping by, Vern!

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