Note: The article was written by Joe over at his blog, Two Dude Review, but the predictions are my own.
Aside from Identity Thief 2013 has been nothing but disappointment after disappointment. Prior to this weekend there have only been two films with the opening weekend bar set at $25 million or higher: A Good Day to Die Hard – $40 million and Jack the Giant Slayer – $25 million. A Good Day to Die Hard was a massive flop and Jack the Giant Slayer went a hair over, but was look at as a disappointment by most. It took 10 weeks, but we’ve reached the point where most new ‘wide releases’ will come with higher expectations than the majority of those released earlier this year.
Oz The Great and Powerful is the first potential blockbuster of the year. With a bar set at $70 million, the film is expected to big a seriously large draw. As a comparison, The Lorax opened the first weekend of March 2012 to over $70 million and in 2010 Alice in Wonderland opened over $116 million. Including The Great and Powerful Oz, all three films already had built-in fan bases having previous established properties; just as important is the fact that all three films are geared towards families, hence the reason the earlier two releases did so well. Oz The Great and Powerful should have a broad appeal as it showcases what appears to be great effects, a good amount of action and a great looking cast (James Franco, Mila Kunis, Rachel Weisz and Michelle Williams). Playing in almost 4000 theaters, the film will easily win the weekend and should come relatively close to $100 million opening.
The second new release of the weekend, Dead Man Down is a movie that has very little hope of doing well this weekend. The marketing behind the film has been practically non-existent, unless you were lucky enough to catch a trailer prior to viewing another film. The sad part is that the movie has a pretty solid cast (Noomi Rapace, Colin Farrell and Terrence Howard), and having been lucky enough to see the trailer I think it looks like an enjoyable thriller. Dead Man Down should break the top 10, but don’t expect it to break the bank.
Here’s how I see the top 10:
1. Oz the Great and the Powerful: $87, 000, 000
2. Jack the Giant Slayer: $15, 000, 000
3. Dead Man Down: $7, 500, 000
4. Identity Thief: $7, 000, 000
5. 21 and Over: $5, 000, 000
6. Silver Linings Playbook: $4, 800, 000
7. Snitch: $4, 500, 000
8. The Last Exorcism Part II: $4, 250, 000
9. Escape from Planet Earth: $4, 000, 000
10. Safe Haven: $3, 700, 000