The new releases
The box office is getting some of its edge back with some solid earnings as of late (if you don’t count that Burt Wonderstone bomb). This weekend we’re seeing four new releases: the new Tina Fey/Paul Rudd comedy, Admission; the animated prehistoric flick, DreamWorks’ The Croods; a terrorist attack action/thriller, Olympus Has Fallen; and a sexy crime drama, Spring Breakers.
The Croods will be one of the movies to stop Oz from three-peating this weekend. It looks really great and adventurous and that cute-monkey primate thing from the trailers is what makes me want to spend $14 on this, and it does not look half-bad. The plot follows the very first prehistoric family as they go on a road trip to an uncharted and a fantastical world. So, it’s a road trip comedy set in prehistoric times? That’s a fine premise. The DreamWorks studio has previously given us audiences solid animated features such as the Shrek franchise, How to Train Your Dragon and Kung Fu Panda. Generally, the animation studio’s films are usually of quality. The voice cast for this film is also rather good: Nicolas Cage sounds like himself, Emma Stone is lending her sultry voice to the feature, and Ryan Reynolds, Catherine Keener, Cloris Leachman and Clark Duke also lend their voices. I think this will be the second highest opening of the weekend of the year so far (above Identity Thief‘s $34.5 million, but behind Oz‘s $79.1 million). The animation does look beautiful, and this will do well at the box office because it is just the third feature of the year that is being targeted at family audiences, and only the second animated feature after Escape from Planet Earth. I also think it will perform well because it’s set in prehistoric times, and we’ll probably see types of dinosaurs and other cool creatures, so this might satisfy dinosaur lovers before Jurassic Park 3D comes out April 5. Films similar to this open to an average $49.4 million, but I think this will come a few million shy of that number, but what do I know… I’m just a guy trying to predict the box office. Realistically, I think this will open between Rio‘s $39.2 or Shrek‘s $42.3 million to Kung Fu Panda 2‘s $47.6 million. DreamWorks’ last project was Rise of the Guardians which bombed by opening to $23.7 million, but I can’t see this bombing, at least I hope it won’t… My prediction for this is a solid $45 million.
Olympus Has Fallen might also earn more many than Oz this weekend, but the battle for second place will between this and that. The action films this year have been bombs (The Last Stand, Parker), but this won’t follow suit, thankfully. It won’t mostly because it looks really good and there’s been a lack of a good terrorist attack flick for a while now, the last great one was Live Free or Die Hard. The plot follows a disgraced former Presidential guard Mike Banning who finds himself trapped inside the White House in the wake of a terrorist attack; using his inside knowledge, Banning works with national security to rescue the President from his kidnappers. It sounds incredibly action-packed and loads of fun, and with Training Day director Antoine Fuqua at the helm, this could be an impressive movie. The fine cast, the director, and the plot and action sequences will attract audiences. It also helps that FilmDistrict launched one big marketing campaign for this, and this project has been its main focus. Because of this focus, Dead Man Down was neglected in a way, so this is a gamble I sincerely hope pays off for the distributor, and I think it will. Antoine Fuqua’s filmography has an average opening of $13.7 million; Butler, an average opening of $18.62; Aaron Eckhart, an average opening of $23 million (which this will make close to that number); Morgan Freeman, an average opening of $26.8. Finally, similar films to this open at an average of $23 million, though I think this will earn a little less than A Good Day to Die Hard‘s $24.8 million. My prediction for this is $23.5 million.
Admission looks like a charming little Tina Fey/Paul Rudd comedy, but the trailer only produces a few laughs. The IMDb plot is: A Princeton admissions officer who is up for a major promotion, takes a professional risk after she meets a college-bound alternative school kid who just might be the son she gave up years ago in a secret adoption. It looks like a solid yet forgettable film, fairly feel-good, but it doesn’t look particularly hilarious. I’ll see the movie, but I only wish Fey had a hand in writing, because she is very funny (see: Mean Girls and TV’s 30 Rock). Similar movies earn an average of $13.3 on opening weekend, but I think this will come closer to The Switch‘s $8.4, and possibly better than Our Idiot Brother‘s $7 million. The director, Paul Weitz’s, biggest titles are About A Boy and American Pie, the former opened to $8.5, and the latter opened to $18.7 million. In Fey’s first movie role since 2010’s Megamind (2010’s Date Night for live-action) this might be lucky to get half of her $20.6 average opening weekend. Paul Rudd has an average opening of $13.9, but I’m convinced for whatever reason this won’t make it to double digits, but if it does, the highest I think it’ll go would have to be one of his early films, Clueless‘s $10.6 million opening. My psychic powers are tingling and they’re telling me this will only earn $8.5 million this weekend.
Spring Breakers earned a seriously excellent $263, 002 at just three theaters last weekend (a $87, 667 per theater average, the 23rd all-time best), so it’s no surprise that the studio took advantage and decided to expand to 1104 theaters. Writer/director Harmony Korine seems that he’ll bring his art-house style to the feature (he directed and wrote Gummo, and wrote Kids) and make it unique for mainstream audiences, and he’s also casting his wife, Rachel Korine, the least well-known of the bikini babes. The other babes include former-Disney stars Selena Gomez (TV’s Wizards of Waverly Place, Monte Carlo) and Vanessa Hudgens (High School Musical), and also TV’s Pretty Little Liars star Ashley Benson. The plot follows four college girls who land in jail after robbing a restaurant in order to fund their spring break vacation, and they find themselves bailed out by a drug and arms dealer who wants them to do some dirty work. The only thing better than these gals in bikinis would be them in nothing at all. James Franco looks like he’s in an awesome role, and it looks like he’ll immerse himself in it, more than he apparently did for his character in Oz The Great and Powerful (which I still have to see). My prediction is $6.5 million for its wide opening. You may think I’m going too high with my prediction, but since it earned $87, 667 at just three theaters, I think it will do fairly well at 1104 theaters.
Here’s how I see the top 10:
Title: Prediction/ Possible percentage drop
1. The Croods: $45, 000, 000
2. Olympus Has Fallen: $23, 500, 000
3. Oz The Great and Powerful: $22, 000, 000/-46.6%
4. The Call: $10, 000, 000/ -41.6%
5. Admission: $8, 500, 000
6. Spring Breakers: $6, 500, 000
7. The Incredible Burt Wonderstone: $5, 500, 000/-46.0%
8. Jack the Giant Slayer: $4, 000, 000/-36.6%
9. Identity Thief: $3, 000, 000/32.1%
10. Snitch: $2, 300, 000/34.3 %
There you have it, what do you think of my predictions? What will you see this weekend? Was the article too long (LOL)? Leave me some comments below!