This weekend, we’re seeing three new big releases: G.I. Joe: Retaliation, The Host and Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor.
The initial buzz on the new G.I. Joe is that it’s a lot better than the first (on Rotten Tomatoes, 34% of critics liked it; while the second is just clinging onto a fresh status, standing at 60%). The release date was postponed from June 2012 to now, so they could add in more of the now very popular Channing Tatum, but it kind of ruined any sort of anticipation many people had. The filmmakers decided to take out the comedic Marlon Wayans and they added in a few action stars: Bruce Willis and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. The Rock helped the Fast and the Furious franchise by making Fast Five the highest-grossing out of all of them. Film adaptations based on Hasbro games can be critical and box office bombs (Battleship, that earned $65.4 million total, and $25.4 in opening weekend) and the Transformers franchise is a box office titan. Films similar to this open to $40.9 million on average. The Rock has an average opening of $26.2 million, Channing Tatum’s average opening is $21.4 million (a $31.26 average opening for four films in 2012 alone; $38.88 if you exclude Haywire), and Bruce Willis has an average opening of $14.3 million. G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra grossed $54.7 million at 4, 007 theaters, and this won’t be able to gross quite as much (unfortunately). Even though this has the appeal of more action stars than last, this is only opening at 3500 theaters this weekend, and Easter weekend is a hard weekend to open on.This might will come close to $50 million, but I’m not convinced that it’ll crack it. My prediction for this is $48 million.
Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor (a.k.a. Temptation or Marriage Counselor, for short) seems like more of Perry’s same melodramatic material, but he does have a fanbase for his signature and sometimes adequate melodramas, and his comedies, as well. It’s hard to predict this one because three of his films (Why Did I Get Married Too?, Madea’s Big Happy Family and Meet the Browns) opened between $20 and $30 million on Easter weekend in the past years. However, both his non-Madea flicks last year (Good Deeds and Alex Cross) weren’t able to live up to box office expectations. Perry has an average opening weekend of $23.15, but I don’t think it will hit $20 million. My prediction for this is $17.5 million.
The Host is yet another film trying to capitalize on young adult adaptations post-Twilight, but this time, the book is actually written by Twilight authour Stephenie Meyer. This is a sci-fi thriller, and it seems that it’s a self vs. self conflict where the main character, Melanie Stryder (Saoirse Ronan), is fighting back against the thing that’s taken over the vast majority of the world, and proving that love could conquer all in a dangerous new world. Too bad there’s going to be a sort-of romance (surprise, surprise, surprise!), as is in a lot of Meyer’s books. I’m conflicted about this because I don’t like Meyer’s work, but I really enjoy the work of Andrew Niccol (he wrote The Truman Show and the mediocre In Time). If anyone can make a shitty book into a good movie, it’s Mr. Niccol. However, when he’s directing, his movies don’t generally do superbly (In Time grossed $12.05 in its opening). The Host is nowhere near as popular as the Twilight saga was when it was made into the movie franchise, so this won’t be a box office titan at all. And it isn’t obvious yet if the Meyer name will attract Twilight fans, but we will find that out after the weekend. Regarding previous 2013 young adult adaptations so far, Warm Bodies and the box office bomb, Beautiful Creatures, I think this is more likely to be a sleeper hit than a bomb. Niccol’s movies open to $12.22 on average, and Ronan opens to $5.5 million on average. I think this would open to a little less than I Am Number Four‘s $19.4 million. I don’t think this will bomb, or go less than $14 million for that matter. My prediction is $16.5 million.
Here’s how I see the top 10
1. G.I. Joe: Retaliation: $48, 000, 000
2. The Croods: $27, 500, 000
3. Olympus Has Fallen: $19, 000, 000
4. Tyler Perry’s Temptation: $17, 500, 000
5. The Host: $16, 500, 000
6. Oz The Great and Powerful: $12, 100, 000
7. The Call: $4, 500, 000
8. Spring Breakers: $4, 300, 000
9. Admission: $2, 900, 000
10. The Incredible Burt Wonderstone: $1, 750, 000