August 16-18 Box Office Predictions

box office (1)Since four movies are being released this weekend, the holdovers aren’t going to get much of a chance to shine. It’s a dog eat dog box office world this August, folks. Two of the movies are bio pics, one about the late entrepreneur, Steve Jobs, “Jobs”; the other is “Lee Daniels’ The Butler,” about a man who was a White House butler during many pivotal times in history. One of the releases is a run-of-the-mill August corporate thriller called “Paranoia,” and the other is “Kick-Ass 2,” my most anticipated movie of August, and one of my most anticipated movies of the year.

“Jobs” is probably the least intriguing release for me. It’s the story of Steve Jobs’ ascension from college dropout into one of the most revered creative entrepreneurs of the 20th century. It seems intriguing, but I haven’t felt the buzz just yet. The non-existent buzz, at that. Similar movies to this open at $8.991 million. I’m not sure how many people are going to want to a movie about Steve Jobs, espeically Ashton Kutcher as Jobs. I mean I’ll see it, and I hope it’ll be good, but my expectations aren’t high. The plot seems interesting. I like a good bio pic. The public demand for this type of feature just doesn’t seem grand. I think it’ll just miss a $10 million opening. My prediction for this is $9.28 million.

“Paranoia” is the second-least intriguing. I think I’ll like it, but it seems like a very run-of-the-mill corporate thriller. I really like the 2011’s political thriller “The Ides of March.” I think the part I like most about “Paranoia” is the cast. Gary Oldman’s outstanding; Harrison Ford is great; and I’m starting to like Liam Hemsworth, as well. I haven’t seen many TV spots for this. But the film hasn’t had a large marketing push at all. I think this will play better than “jOBS” throughout the weekend, because people like their thrillers; and the younger folk might be drawn to Baby Hemsworth. My prediction for this is $10.63 million.

“Lee Daniels’ The Butler” has, admittedly, gotten me a bit excited. I think it could be a great civil rights flick. The cast is superb. It has Forest Whitaker, Oprah Winfrey in her first movie role in fifteen years, Robin Williams (as President Eisenhower), Alan Rickman (as Ronald Reagan), John Cusack (Richard Nixon), Jane Fonda… A lot of people. Movies similar to this open at $7.27 million. High-teens to low-20’s is a definite for this, I’d say. I don’t have a lot more to say about this one other than I’d see this before either “Paranoia” or “jOBS.” This seems like a movie that could muster some real Oscar buzz. The last part civil rights film was “42” which opened to $27.48 million. But that was the bio pic of Jackie Robinson – and not a lot of butlers are nearly as interesting as Robinson. My point is: I wonder if this movie could experience a similar, surprisingly high opening? For this film, a surprisingly high opening would be in the mid-20’s, I’d say… I think my prediction of $20.2 million is good enough.

“Kick-Ass 2” looks freaking awesome. I loved “Kick-Ass” because it’s a lot of fun and satirical, and I love satires. With the help of Jim Carrey, “Kick-Ass 2” could be even better than the first. “K-A1” opened to $19.8 million, and went on to gross $48 million domestically. It has a great fanbase, so I think this will gross a bit more.Three years is a bit long to wait between sequels, but I’m glad it’s here. “Red,” another R-rated comic book adaptation, opened to $21.6 million (check on that), and its sequel, also three years after the first, only made $18 million. Because of that, I don’t feel as if I can go bold with my number, here. I’m going to predict this one right around its predecessor at $21.8 million.

As for the holdovers, with no new comedies coming out this weekend (if you don’t count “Kick-Ass 2”), “We’re the Millers” will have a decent holdover. Maybe it will be play out like “Horrible Bosses.” There are no new sci-fi films coming out either, but “Elysium” wasn’t a massive hit with audiences. “Planes” will do okay, but I think “Percy Jackson 2” might be in trouble. If it was only able to attract a $14.4 million sized audience in its three-day frame ($23.3 million in five-day), how many people still want to see it? It seems as if “2 Guns” is in trouble, as well – especially considering it plummeted 58.4 per cent in its second weekend (Ouch!) and because fellow R-rated action-comedy “Kick-Ass 2” is coming out.

Here’s how I see the Top 10:
1. Kick-Ass 2: $21.8 million
2. Lee Daniels’ The Butler: $20.2 million
3. We’re the Millers: $15.296 million
4. Elysium: $14.75 million
5. Planes: $13.27 m
6. Paranoia: $10.63 million
7. jOBS: $9.28 million
8. Percy Jackson 2: $7.69m
9. 2 Guns: $6.28m
10. The Smurfs 2: $5.149m
Predicted Top 10 gross: $124.345m

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4 Responses to August 16-18 Box Office Predictions

  1. It’s too early to do a biopic on Jobs. I think you need to wait at least a good decade or more before it can be decent.

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