Box Office Predictions: August 23-25

Three new movies are coming out this weekend: “The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones,” “You’re Next,” and “The World’s End.” As I see it, the only two fighting for a top spot are “City of Bones” and “You’re Next.” So for the heck of it, I’ll discuss “The World’s End” first.

“The World’s End” is the final instalment to the Cornetto Trilogy, following “Shaun of the Dead” and “Hot Fuzz.” British comedies aren’t usually the bestsellers here domestically, but “Shaun” and “Hot Fuzz” has a great fanbase. It seems that people also really like Simon Pegg and Nick Frost. Movies similar to this open to $16.07 million, but since this is only coming to about 1400 theatres this weekend, I can’t imagine this going that high. In 2004, “Shaun” opened to $3.3 million at 607 theatres; while “Hot Fuzz” opened to $5.8 million at 825 theatres. “Paul” opened in 2011 at $13.04 million and it stars Pegg, Frost and Seth Rogen as the voice of an alien; and it was from the director of “Superbad.” I think this can reach around that height, but fall short of matching it. Mostly because “Paul” was at 2802 theatres, and this movie is going to virtually half of that. I am also wondering how much audiences are wanting an apocalyptic comedy after “This is the End.” My prediction for my second most anticipated movie of August is $10.75 million.

I’ll admit, I’m slightly excited for “The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones.” I enjoyed the book. I’m sure many others did. The market for young adult novel adaptations hasn’t been great so far this year. “Warm Bodies” did decent business with an opening over $20 million. But “The Host” ($10.6 million) and “Beautiful Creatures” ($7.58 million) didn’t open so well. “Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters” disappointed with a $14.4 million opening, about $1.1 million less than half of what the first made in its opening. That’s because the original had a lukewarm reception generally. It did make $23.25 million in its first five days, though, and if a sequel that follows an okay movie can do that, I imagine this movie will do better business. It could even take first place. The book is actually well-liked, it seems. However, I know some fans of the book who aren’t so attracted to the cast. I like the cast for the most part. I think Lily Collins (the heroine, Clary), Jared Harris (Hodge) and Kevin Zegers (Alec Lightwood) will suit their respective characters. But Godfrey Gao, a little Asian man, really does not fit the description of Magnus Bane (I think I remember him being described as hulking) in the books. And when I was reading the books, I imagined Alex Pettyfer in the role of Jace; never once imagining Jamie Campbell Bower, even after I found out he was cast in the role. But I really haven’t seen him in many big roles yet. Movies similar to this open at $35.99 million. Hopefully teenagers don’t skip this, saving their money for “This is Us.” My prediction for the three-day is $16.7 million, and the five-day is $25.4 million.

And I’m very excited for “You’re Next.” It looks like a great home invasion flick, and I love the utilization of Lou Reed’s “Perfect Day” on the soundtrack. This movie looks successfully creepy and I hope it does well this weekend, and also washes out the bland taste of “The Purge.” This movie is coming to 2400 theatres this weekend, but I don’t think this will be a surprise hit like “The Purge” was, because of that movie’s poor reception, and because audiences have already received a great R-rated horror (unseen by me) “The Conjuring.” But that’s not going to prevent me from saying this movie overperforms. I think it will. Movies similar to this open at $12.7 million. “The Strangers” is one of the most successful R-rated home invasion horrors, opening at $20.99 million, and “The Purge” had an amazing opening at $34.05 million (but it had one of the biggest second weekend drops at 75.6%). Hopefully young’ns don’t hold off on this one, since many might be waiting “Insidious Chapter 2.” Screw it. My prediction for this is $18 million.

Here’s how I see the Top 10:
1. You’re Next: $18m
2. The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones: $16.7m
3. The Butler: $15.96m
4. We’re the Millers: $12m
5. The World’s End: $10.75m
6. Elysium: $8m
7. Planes: $7.9m
8. Kick-Ass 2: $7.8m
9. Blue Jasmine: $6.8m
10. Percy Jackson 2: $6.3m

Note: I’m going away this weekend so I’ll need to do some hardcore catching up, because I haven’t been to the theatre since last Thursday. For me, on my normal schedule, it’s a rarity that I’ve seen less than 5 of the Top 10 movies, but I’ve been behind since mid-July with three or four movies being released each weekend.

P.s.: My review of ‘Kick-Ass 2’ will be up tomorrow. Have a good weekend!

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