Box Office Predictions: August 31-September 1

Closed Circuit“Closed Circuit” probably won’t do so well over this Labor Day weekend. The fact that “Paranoia,” a similar generic August thriller, only did $3.53 million in its three-day release, it leads me to believe this will do similarly, but a bit better. Just by a bit. (Though, “Paranoia” did go to 2459 theatres, while “CC” is only going to 800 theatres.) Similar movies open at $8.615 million, and the highest opening ever for a similar movie was the $29.15 million “Eagle Eye” mustered back in 2008. It seems that Focus Features is hoping for a good opening over Labor Day, as “The Debt” earned $9.9 million over this weekend in 2011. Focus wishes. I haven’t seen one TV spot, so I don’t think the odds of this making a lot of money – especially against “Getaway” – are high. “Paranoia” also has a retched 3% on Rotten Tomatoes, and this has a middling 40% at this time. Because of that, this might have a better word-of-mouth. My prediction for the three day frame is $3.8 million, and the five-day frame will be $6.9 million.

Getaway“Getaway” looks pretty good, yet generic; it stars Ethan Hawke and Selena Gomez, and Jon Voight plays the villain. I like hostage situation movies, and I think they’re cool when they aren’t restricted to a house. Movies similar to this open at $15.33 million. I’ve seen a few TV spots for this. “Closed Circuit” is its most threatening competition, and that’s not much of a threat at all. There isn’t a lot to discuss here – so I think this will make about twice as much as “CC” in its opening. My prediction is $8.75 million.

This is UsAs much as it pains me to say it, I think “One Direction: This is Us” is going to win the weekend, because I think there are enough young girls in the world to make that happen. I just learned that the “Super Size Me” guy, Morgan Spurlock, will be directing this. That doesn’t really enhance my interest to see it though. It looks like a crappy concert movie, but it somehow has a 71% on Rotten Tomatoes. Can it get any worse? It’s coming to over 2500 theatres this weekend, and movies similar to it open at $16.31 million. The only concert movies to do great business are the “Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour” that earned $31.11 million in Miley’s non-twerking days, and “Michael Jackson’s This is It” that earned $23.2 million in 2009. Concert/documentary movies have had a difficult time as of late, with “Glee The 3D Concert Movie” earning $5.96 million in its opening, and “Katy Perry: Part of Me” earning $7.13 million. I think this one could buck that trend, but I really wouldn’t mind if it didn’t. My prediction for the three-day is $15.25 million.

Here’s how I see the Top 10:
1. One Direction: This is Us: $15.25m
2. The Butler: $10.5m
3. We’re the Millers: $9.12m
4. Getaway: $8.75m
5. Planes: $5.7m
6. The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones: $5.3m
7. The World’s End: $5.1m
8. Elysium: $3.61m
9. Closed Circuit: $3.8m
10. You’re Next: $3.51m
The Grandmaster: $2.39m

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2 Responses to Box Office Predictions: August 31-September 1

  1. This is probably the one weekend where you’ll get more bang for your buck by not going to the theater. Pull something up on Netflix or even go to your library and get something worth watching.

    • Daniel Prinn says:

      Yeah, I’d say so. The only movie from this weekend that peaks my interest is Getaway. I like Ethan Hawke. I only saw Elysium at the theatres this weekend. Shall write my review of it soon.

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