Box Office Predictions: Sept. 20-22

Battle of the YearI don’t know what “Battle of the Year” is doing in theatres at this point in time, after dance films are so past their prime. And this looks way generic and familiar. Movies similar to this open at $11.06 million. “Magic Mike” is the highest-grossing dance film with a $113.7 million domestic run (and its opening was $39.127 million). For generic dance flicks, “Step Up” is the highest-grossing with $65.3 million in its domestic run. “Step Up 4” made $11 million in its opening with no big stars, but it had the benefit of being part of a franchise. But this one isn’t part of a franchise. Chris Brown is in it, and so is Josh Peck, but Peck hasn’t really broken out in the film industry quite yet. Nor is he a bankable actor. A few cons of this movie is that it had hardly any marketing campaign; it only has a bit over 104,000 likes (as of Sept. 17) on its Facebook page, and it has only registered 1138 tweets, with a 3:1 positive to negative ratio (as of Sept. 17). I think this will be seen by some over the weekend, because apparently some teens like to watch the same generic (3D) dance flick over and over and over again. It’s a ‘Wait for Cable’ type-of movie for me, if anything. My prediction for this is $7.3 million.

Prisoners“Prisoners” looks freaking awesome. Generally, crime movies are hit-and-miss at the box office, but I think this one will be a modest hit. Similar films to this open at $16.05 million. This is star-packed and has a great-sounding story. One of the main reasons I think it’ll do really well because it is one of the runner-ups of the Blackberry People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival. That means it’s good, and it is one of September’s only releases that has Oscar potential. The long-term legs for this one should be great. My prediction for it is $21.8 million.

 

Here’s how I see the Top 10:
1. “Prisoners”: $21.8m
2. “Insidious Chapter 2”: $18.06m
3. “Battle of the Year”: $7.3m
4. “The Family”: $6.875m
5. “Riddick”: $4.1m
6. “Lee Daniels’ The Butler”: $3.94m
7. “We’re the Millers”: $3.85
8. “Instructions Not Included”: $2.98m
9. “Planes”: $2.5m
10. “The Wizard of Oz 3D”: $2.28m

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