Box Office Predictions: November 27 to December 2

“Black Nativity” looks like a pretty decent musical, but if I’m going to see a movie for its music this weekend, it’ll be “Frozen.” The story: A street-wise teen from Baltimore who has been raised by a single mother travels to New York City to spend the Christmas holiday with his estranged relatives, where he embarks on a surprising and inspirational journey. I think this would be better suited being released two weekends from now, but it’s a movie about family, so I guess even if it is Thanksgiving weekend, a movie with a Christmas setting isn’t horribly out of place.  People might show up for the cast, because it has Forrest Whitaker and Jennifer Hudson, but otherwise it just looks okay to me. Movies similar to it open at $14.2 million, so that might be a reasonable be a reasonable expectation for the five-day frame. I am also curious to see how many will think it’s a Tyler Perry movie? Since it has a fair amount of competition, including “The Best Man Holiday”, I don’t think it could really breakout. I’m going to go with $11 million for the three-day weekend, and $15 million for the five-day weekend.

“Oldboy” looks like a great movie with some star appeal found in Josh Brolin and Samuel L. Jackson. It’s a remake of the 2003 South Korean thriller, and I’ll have to see that one before this one. I guess this only has a limited audience. It’s only coming to 583 theatres this weekend, and I think it’ll muster $3.2 million over the five-day weekend.

“Frozen” is a new animated flick from the creators of “Wreck-It Ralph” starring the voices of Kristen Bell and Josh Gad. It looks like a fun winter wonderland movie with music and comedy and a good adventure, so it looks like the whole package. “Ralph” made $49m in its opening weekend, and it looks like this has the same sort-of anticipation. The last animated film was “Free Birds”, released three weeks ago. I think that would be have been smarter if it were released closer to this weekend, rather than November 1st. Movies similar to this open at $32.6 million, but I think this will do numbers along the lines of “Wreck-It Ralph.” “Despicable Me 2” made $82 million over its three-day weekend, and “Monsters University” made in the same area. I think this will make close to that in its five-day. My prediction for the three-day frame is $52 million, but for the five-day weekend, my prediction is $69.3 million.

Finally, “Homefront” is the other new release this weekend. It stars Jason Statham, Winona Ryder and James Franco. The story: A former DEA agent moves his family to a quiet town, where he soon tangles with a local meth druglord. I’m getting vibes of “Straw Dogs” mixed with drugs and Jason Statham. I think it has the potential to be a sort-of different Statham vehicle, at least I hope. I wonder if anyone’s sick of Statham yet? Anyway, his movies still make a decent amount of money, and this is coming to 2572 theatres this weekend. Let’s just hope it does better than “Parker.” “Parker” opened to $7 million at the beginning of the year. I think this will make $9 million in its first three days, and maybe make $12.8 million in its first five days.

For now I’ll just be predicting the new releases, but I’m sure I’ll be predicting the entire Top 10 again soon enough. Enjoy the predictions.

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