Box Office Predictions: April 11-13

The three main releases of the weekend are Draft Day, Oculus, Rio 2.

For me, the horror film Oculus looks the most promising. It premiered back in September at the Toronto International Film Festival, in the Midnight Madness programme. The premise looks really cool, it’s about a young woman who tries to exonerate her brother, who was convicted of murder, by proving that it was committed by a supernatural phenomenon. It sounds really cool. The marketing campaign hasn’t been that aggressive, but the trailers that I have seen have been effectively creepy. I’m really excited to see this. Karen Gillan is starring in it, and the redheaded beauty will be seen as a bald-headed beauty in August’s Guardians of the Galaxy as Nebula. Films similar to this low-budget horror film open at an average $12.6 million. Since the marketing campaign hasn’t been that aggressive, but effective like I said, I think this will make $14.8 million this weekend.

Draft Day, starring Kevin Costner, is a sports drama that doesn’t primarily take place on the sports field. The movie follows General Manager Sonny Weaver on Draft Day, who has an opportunity to rebuild his team with the number one draft pick. The reason I’m looking forward to watching this film is because of the cast. I like Kevin Costner, Jennifer Garner, and I like what I’ve seen from Chadwick Boseman (42) so far. Similar films to this open at $11.45 million. It seems to me the most comparable films for this, even though there are both baseball, are Trouble with the Curve ($12.16m) and Moneyball ($19.5m). Draft Day is anticipated by many, it seems, so I’m going to predict this at $16.7 million.

The new film that will gross the most this weekend, but probably have to settle for second place to Captain America: The Winter Soldier, is Rio 2. It’s the animated sequel to 2011’s hit. The sequel doesn’t even take place primarily in Rio de Janeiro; they go to the Amazon, where Blu meets his father-in-law. I think one of the taglines, Meet the Flockers, is a bit clever. I’m not extremely excited for this, but it looks pretty good! I thought the first film was just pretty good. Films similar to this open at $40.85 million. The first Rio had an opening weekend of $39.22 million. My prediction for the first sequel is $39.5 million.

 

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