June 6-8 Box Office Predictions: ‘The Fault in Our Stars’ to top ‘Edge of Tomorrow’

The Fault in Our StarsEdge of TomorrowThere are two big new releases for the box office this weekend. One is Edge of Tomorrow, a sci-fi action vehicle starring Tom Cruise and Emily Blunt. The other is a romantic drama The Fault in Our Stars, based on the acclaimed novel of the same name by John Green.

I’ll start with Edge of Tomorrow. With last year’s Oblivion, Cruise proved he can be a mild box office draw, expressed through the film’s solid $37 million debut. Personally, I think this premise looks more intriguing, and it looks like it has a fun sense of humour. I also love that electronic music in the background of the trailer. The tune got stuck in my head quickly. I think this film adds some appeal with comedic and dramatic actress Emily Blunt in her first attempt at the science fiction genre. What is more appealing is that this looks like an easier plot to follow than Source Code and even the sometimes baffling Oblivion. I see this making $32.8 million this weekend. The reason I’m not going up to $35 million is because last year’s Elysium showed that science fiction could muster disappointing numbers, as it only had an opening weekend of $29.8 million.

The Fault in Our Stars also looks good. It stars Shailene Woodley and Ansel Elgort. To me, it looks like A Walk to Remember, hold the extreme cheesiness. Pre-ticket sales for this film suggest that it’s out-pacing The Vow and Safe Haven. Probably because of fans of the novel, and the star power of Woodley. I haven’t read the book, and I’m trying to decide if I want to before I see the film. I’m predicting this as the winner this weekend at $43 million.

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Box Office Predictions May 30-June 1: A Million Ways to Die in the West Gets a Little Maleficent

A Million Ways to Die in the WestMaleficentAs one of the two big films being released this weekend, Seth MacFarlane brings us his follow-up to 2012’s Ted, this time basing this film in 1882 Arizona. This one is called A Million Ways to Die in the West. MacFarlane has quite the fan-base because of his work in television as the creator of Family Guy, American Dad and The Cleveland Show. Since he still seems most comfortable with 22-minute slots, it would be nice to see his newest film not suffer the same pacing issues found in Ted. That film was a major hit at the U.S. Box office, making $54.4 million in its opening and grossing $218.5 million domestically, and going onto a $549.3 million worldwide total. 

I can’t see his latest being as successful, perhaps because of the negative reviews. Films similar to this open at $28.4 million. This might also not go as high as Ted because it’s a Western, and those don’t appeal nearly as much as vulgar teddy bears. This will mark MacFarlane’s first live-action leading role. Westerns still can be popular, if you’re Quentin Tarantino. Django Unchained had a $30 million debut back in 2012, so let’s see if MacFarlane can register numbers around there. I think he has a chance because the cast looks great for A Million Ways. It also includes Liam Neeson, Charlize Theron and Amanda Seyfried, to name a few stars. Anyway, I’m going to predict this film at $33.7 million, because the marketing campaign has been strong. Then again, people might just wait until 22 Jump Street – and since that comes out in just two weeks, it could really prevent this from hitting $100 million. 

The other film coming out this weekend is Maleficent, it stars Angelina Jolie as the titular character, and the film is the tale of Sleeping Beauty told from the villain’s perspective. How awesome does that sound? I for one am excited for it. Though, negative reviews have reduced my ‘very excited’ to a firm ‘excited’. Maybe that’s because it looks like it has a similar visual style to Snow White and the Huntsman, in some ways. I think it could be great. Films similar to this open at $63.6 million. Since this had such a strong advertising campaign, I think this will open between Snow White and the Huntsman ($56 million), and Oz the Great and Powerful ($79 million). This is being released a weekend earlier than SW&H was released two summers ago, and I see it surpassing it. I’m not sure if it has $70 million potential, so I’m going to predict this mildly close at $65.3 million.

Box Office Predictions, May 23-26 – X-Men: Days of Future Past to mute Adam Sandler’s Blended

This weekend, X-Men: Days of Future Past eyes an opening north of $100 million over the Memorial Day frame. Films similar to this open at $84.2 million. A reason I don’t see this being huge, like a $125 million opening, is because X-Men films have generally been on the decline in numbers lately. The opening for X-Men films went the highest with X-Men: The Last Stand at $102 million, then declined to $85 million for X-Men Origins: Wolverine and then took a steep decline to $55 million for X-Men: First Class at $55.1 million, a similar opening to 2000’s X-Men. And then The Wolverine opened at $53 million, and part of these disappointments might be because of Origins‘ generally poor reception. Though, because this film looks so great – blending characters from the present, past and future – this will attract a huge audience this weekend and be the film that brings the franchise out of its minor slump. My prediction for this film is $110 million.

The other major release coming out this weekend is Adam Sandler’s latest film Blended, where he teams up with Drew Barrymore again for the first time since 2004’s 50 First Dates. I see this doing okay this weekend, because family audiences really do like the “safe” comedy option. Films similar to this open at $28.5 million. I think this will do $37 million in the long weekend frame. This is because Just Go With It made $30 million in a three-day frame, and that’s a good enough basis for this because they’re basically the same film.

I think Godzilla will end up in second place this weekend (let’s say a $45 million weekend gross), and I think Neighbors will be in fourth place with $15 million, and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 with $7.5 million, because with the newest super-hero film being released, this is going to get even more over-shadowed. By the way, those three predictions are for the three-day frame. What are you guys seeing this weekend?

Box Office Predictions May 16-18: Godzilla has a Million Dollar Arm

 

GodzillaMillion Dollar ArmThe big opener this weekend will be Godzilla from director Gareth Edwards (director of the cool, low-budget flick Monsters). It stars Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Bryan Cranston and Elizabeth Olsen. I’m pretty excited for this one, partly due to a fantastic advertising campaign. It’s debuting at nearly 4000 theatres this weekend, working on a budget of $160 million. Films similar to this open at $51.113 million. Since this film has so much of a “buzz” factor, I see it doing it great numbers – something along the lines of World War Z‘s $66.4 million and not Pacific Rim‘s $37.2 million. Social media tracking also suggests this will do very well, as in an above $60 million debut. I’m going to predict this film at $73.5 million.

Also opening this weekend: Million Dollar Arm from Disney studios. Has anyone else already confused the title for Million Dollar Baby a few times? I’ve noticed a lot of “special screenings” lately; there was on Saturday and I noticed 7PM screenings throughout the week, too. It seems that it has made the word-of-mouth have a good edge, thanks to some TV spots featuring little blurbs from the average movie-goer. That might be more appealing to someone else who is the average movie-goer.  Films similar to this open at $11.7 million. The last sports movie to hit screens was Draft Day which disappointed, making $9.7 million. But the last baseball movie, 42, made a great $27.48 million. I don’t think this will be that big (as 42 went on to gross a bit over $95 million domestically), and it seems to me that the bigger question is if this will break $20 million. The sports dramas released by Disney have gone as low as The Greatest Game Ever Played ($3.6 million at 1080 theatres) and as high as Remember the Titans ($20.9 million). I’m going to predict this at $22.1 million, which is $1M over The Rookie‘s 2002 opening ($16M) adjusted for inflation.

Are you guys seeing any movies this weekend? I’m seeing Godzilla tomorrow and I’m hoping to see Million Dollar Arm on Monday. Have a good long weekend fellow Canadians!

 

Box office predictions May 9-11: Dorothy has a Mom’s Night Out with a few Neighbors

Legends of OzMom's Night OUtNeighborsNeighbors is definitely the new release pick to dominate the box office this weekend. Even This is the End, which had too strange of a premise to attract a huge audience in its opening weekend still made a good $20 million and because of some great word-of-mouth, and because of a smart move by Sony to get it back to a lot of theatres later in its run, it made over $100 million. Films similar to this open at $22.8 million, and this just has a lot of buzz – and a great marketing campaign, as I see constant advertisements for this. But boy, does it look funny! I think the question is if this will break $40 million this weekend. 2012’s 21 Jump Street did $36.3 million, which I think this is the lowest this will go. I’m going to predict this at $44 million because it seems like one of the year’s most anticipated comedies (and one of the strongest). And if Grown Ups 2 can do $41.5 million, this better do more.

I think some company called Clarius Entertainment is really trying to hide Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return. I mean, I had to look up the trailer to see what it was – and to see if it was a real movie. It has an admittedly impressive cast – Lea Michele as Dorothy (meh), Dan Aykroyd (one Blues Brother!) Kelsey Grammer, James Belushi (well, we have the brother of a Blues Brother), Hugh Dancy, Oliver Platt and Martin Short as the villainous Jester – who literally looks like a silly version of the Joker – but I think Martin Short will have a blast as the Joker. I’m surprised this just didn’t go straight-to-DVD. Well, the budget is $70 million, but I think a lot of it was spent on the cast, but this is a really reminder that great literature is public domain after so many years if not renewed. (I’d personally love to see a Catcher in the Rye big-screen adaptation before I die – so that’s a reason public domain is a good thing!) Anyway, similar movies to this open at $10.6 million. This will not get over $10 million. I don’t think parents will pay to torture their children. But stranger things have happened: The Nut Job did make $19.4 million in its opening, but that actually had a half-decent advertising campaign. I don’t think this will go as low as Oogieloves in the BIG Balloon Adventure (the #1 worst very wide opening weekend of all time with $443, 901). I think this film has enough brand appeal to get up to $5.6 million (which is my prediction) much like Valiant, Pooh’s Heffalump Movie and the enjoyable Everyone’s Hero. I can’t imagine this going higher than Igor‘s $7.8 million, but I also can’t imagine this going much lower than Doogal‘s $3.6 million. Although, how hilarious would that be!

A film called Mom’s Night Out is being released at 1, 044 which seems like a missed opportunity considering it’s Mother’s day weekend. I think it will lose quietly through Friday and Saturday and have a bit of a spike on Sunday, no matter how high. I don’t think it will meet God’s Not Dead high for a limited release (it impressively raked in $9.2 million at 780 theatres in its opening), but this could do well. Similar films open at $8.8 million. I think this will attract mothers to the movie on Sunday, because remember the spike The Great Gatsby had last year? Wow! That was crazy! I think more mom’s will pick this as entertainment because Neighbors might be a bit too much of hard R-rated movie for them; it seems a bit raunchy. Though, the religious aspect could hurt or benefit this film. I think the cast for this film is pretty good – it has Grey’s Anatomy‘s Sarah Drew (who I’ve never seen act) Sean Astin, The Middle‘s Patricia Heaton (I’ve seen The Middle a few times but I haven’t found her shtick that strong so far); and country singer Trace Adkins playing some biker named Bones – and if I remember correctly he played a biker in 2011’s The Lincoln Lawyer, too, so – type-casting for the win! Anyway, my prediction is $6.8 million.

As for what I’ll be seeing out of the new releases – I saw a screening of Neighbors earlier today and I thought it was hilarious. As for the Oz movie, I might watch that at the cheap theatre – and I think I’ll see Mom’s Night Out on Sunday if that’s my mom’s movie choice.  Here’s how I see the top 5:

  1. The Amazing Spider-Man 2: $46.3 million
  2. Neighbors: $44 million
  3. The Other Woman: $9 million
  4. Mom’s Night Out: $6.8 million
  5. Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return: $5.6 million

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction

The Amazing Spider-Man 2The Amazing Spider-Man got some pretty good reviews when it was released in 2012, and it opened to $62 million. I think this sequel will do a lot more than it – because it has a lot more appeal to me because of the stars, and the villains look a lot stronger. Films similar to this open at $85.7 million. I think high 80s is ideal for this, but I’m not sure if it will do much more than Captain America: The Winter Soldier‘s $95 million. The appeal just doesn’t seem to be that high. My prediction is $89.8 million. That’s the only major release coming out this weekend. What are YOU seeing this weekend? Are you excited that the summer movie season has officially started? Sound off in the comments!

Box Office Predictions April 25-27: Brick Mansions, The Quiet Ones and The Other Woman

Quirky title that was too long for a headline: The wife didn’t find out about The Other Woman until he took her to one of their many Brick Mansions. It took the wife awhile to find out because he only screws The Quiet Ones.

Brick MansionsThe Other WomanThe Quiet Ones

Brick Mansions comes to theatres this weekend, an action thriller that is one of Paul Walker’s final film roles. It looks pretty awesome and explosive, and it’s another film from popular French filmmaker Luc Besson, the man behind Taken and Taken 2Leon: The Professional and this year’s 3 Days to Kill. I think Paul Walker’s involvement will give this a bigger push than if he were not in it. This is a remake of a French film called District B13, which stars David Belle in the same role. Anyway, films similar to this open at $18 million. I think this will be a bit lower so I’m going to predict $14 million.

The Other Woman strikes me as a MILF version (plus Kate Upton) of John Tucker Must Die. Maybe it’ll be a bit more mature?  This is director Nick Cassavetes’ first attempt at comedy, and sometimes that’s harder to do than drama. I really have loved a good amount of his work; he’s directed The Notebook, My Sister’s KeeperJohn Q., and one of my personal favourites, Alpha Dog. Those are all dramatically strong films, so I’m interested to see how Cassavetes does with this film. Films similar to this open at $20.23 million. I think this is going to hit right at $20 million.

The other big release of the weekend is The Quiet Ones. I like the look of this film, Jared Harris is an appealing factor for me and I like Olivia Cooke on TV’s Bates Motel. I hope the college psychology experiment doesn’t make this look too similar to the god-awful horror film The Apparition which was released in August of 2012. That one opened to $2.8 million. Films similar to this open at $19.3 million. I don’t think this would reach that number, because this doesn’t look like the film that will bring horror out of its brief drought – but it looks pretty cool. I’m going to go around the number Oculus did two weekends ago, which was $12 million. I haven’t felt any big marketing push or anticipation for this, but I think it’ll draw a decent-sized crowd. My prediction is $11 million.

As for the holdovers, Captain America 2 could four-peat if The Other Woman doesn’t hit $20 million (I think it will, though). I’m thinking a weekend of $19 million looks likely for Cap in his fourth weekend. Heaven is for Real won second place last weekend, beating Rio 2 by a margin of $0.4 million. I’m curious to see who will win this weekend. I’m going in favour of Heaven, which grossed $22.522 million, for those who want to know the number. It seems that it Heaven was met with mediocrity from trolls on IMDb, with a rating of 5.6. It did receive an ‘A’ Cinemascore, however — so it was a hit with Christian audiences. They’re who it’s for, mostly. I think Rio 2 will gross $14.5 million, and Heaven to gross $15 million. 

As for the status on reviews for the weekend, I’m going to post Heaven is for Real (which I enjoyed) and Oculus (which I loved). At least I’ll try to post Oculus. You see, my computer stopped charging so I’m getting a new one and they’re transferring the files over to my new one, and I’m picking it up tomorrow. That’s why I haven’t posted very much this week. I’m writing this article on my mom’s laptop. Anyway, thanks for reading!

1. The Other Woman – $20 million

2. Captain America: The Winter Soldier – $19 million

3. Heaven is for Real – $15 million

4. Rio 2 – $14.5 million

5. Brick Mansions – $14 million

6. The Quiet Ones – $11 million