‘2 Guns’ wins the weekend, ‘The Smurfs 2’ flops

“2 Guns” did decent business with a $27.059 million opening, and that’s great considering this R-rated action comedy defeated a new PG-animated sequel, “The Smurfs 2,” which really disappointed with a $17.548 million. (This makes me glad, because it probably means “Planes” won’t do so handsomely, either. So families really didn’t smurf up by going to see it.) I guess since adults hated the first so much, they didn’t take their kids to it because they’re the ones who make the buying decisions. It’s unfortunate that “2 Guns” won’t make it to $100 million by the ends of its run, especially with its only decent B+ CinemaScore. “The Wolverine” had a good holdover, dropping 59.9% to $21.324 million, which is about the same pace as “X-Men: First Class.” My prediction was way too high (whoops). “The Conjuring” came in fourth place with $13.027 million, bringing its new total up to $107.956 million. Since “The Smurfs 2” didn’t have the greatest opening, “Despicable Me 2” only dropped 38.6% to $10.134 million. (And “Turbo” had a 54.7% drop down to $6.228 million.) It looks like “The Smurfs 2” and “Turbo” won’t be doing awesome business after two family-friendly flicks come out next weekend (“Planes,” “Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters), so we’ll see what happens with that.

Anyway, here’s how the Top 10 performed:

2 GunsTitle: Prediction/Result/Difference
1. 2 Guns: $33.8 million/$27.059 million/$6.741 million over
2. The Wolverine: $27.15 million/$21.324 million/$5.826 million over
3. The Smurfs 2 (five-day): $39.34 million/$27.109 million/$12.231 million over
4. The Conjuring: $12.85 million/$13.027 million/$177, 000 under
5. Despicable Me 2: $10.1 million/10.134 million/$34, 000 under
6. Grown Ups 2: $6.96 million/$7.945 million/$985, 000 under
7. Turbo: $8.56 million/$6.228 million/$2.332 million over
8. Red 2: $5.26 million/$5.556 million/$296, 000 under
9. The Heat: $4.844 million/$4.623 million/$221, 000 over
10. Pacific Rim: $4.035 million/$4.49 million/$455, 000 under

For the two new releases, I was off by a total of $18.972 million.
For the eight holdovers, I was off by a total of $10.326 million.

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August 2-4 Box Office Predictions

The Smurfs 2“The Smurfs 2” is being released two days early to beat the rush. Now, that worked wonders for “Despicable Me 2,” but didn’t do anything for “Turbo.” After families have emptied their pockets out on legitimately good animated movies like “Monsters University” and “DM2,” their budgets for movies are running on empty (as shown by the soft first weekend for “Turbo”). (That’s okay by me — because this and the summer’s last animated movie, “Planes,” don’t peak my interest.) Movies similar to “The Smurfs 2” open to an average $25.96 million. 2011’s “The Smurfs” opened to $35.6 million. Two years between the original and the first sequel isn’t so bad. Families might have grown a bit wiser in that time – though. For the three-day weekend, I’ll predict this at $26.5 million; and for the five-day frame, I’ll predict it at $39.34 million.

2 Guns

“2 Guns” is the other major release this weekend. It’s an action comedy starring Denzel Washington and Mark Wahlberg, so it already has an appeal with the cast. The last major buddy comedy, “The Heat,” was aimed at women; so now it’s time to show that men still like their action comedies. This still has an appeal to women, as well, because buddy comedies usually do well. “The Heat” had an $39.115 million debut, so this actioner should open roughly in the same neighbourhood, maybe a bit lower since this film’s marketing campaign wasn’t as aggressive as the campaign of “The Heat.” And since “The Wolverine” will have a good holdover, my prediction is $33.8 million.

Title: Prediction
1. “2 Guns”: $33.8 million
2. “The Wolverine”: $27.15 million
3. “The Smurfs 2”: $26.5 million (Five-day: $39.34 million)
4. “The Conjuring”: $12.85 million
5. “Despicable Me 2“: $10.1 million
6. “Turbo”: $8.56 million
7. “Grown Ups 2“: $6.96 million
8. “Red 2”: $5.26 million
9. “The Heat“: $4.844 million
10. “Pacific Rim“: $4.035 million