August 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Third most-anticipated: "Elysium"“Elysium” looks great, and it looks like it could be the best sci-fi of the year yet. Okay, I’ll try to keep my expectations lower than that, because it’s been quite a year for sci-fi. Neill Blomkamp’s first movie “District 9” impressed, especially with its $37.35 million opening. This has been eagerly anticipated, with its star power (Matt Damon, Jodie Foster) and an intriguing story. Thanks to the buzz, I think this will gross more (just by a bit) than “District 9.” And if it doesn’t, it might as well be guaranteed that it grosses closer to “Oblivion” ($37.05m) than “After Earth” ($27.52m). I’m doubt this will be anything less than high 30’s. My prediction is $38.4 million.

We're the Millers“We’re the Millers” looks funny. It looks like an amusing road trip comedy, where the character Sudeikis plays has to bring a huge shipment of marijuana across the Mexican border back to the U.S., and he hires a stripper (Jennifer Aniston), a runaway (Emma Roberts) and a virgin (Will Poulter) to act as his family. The marketing campaign for this has been light, but I’ve been intrigued by it ever since I saw the red band trailer before “The Hangover Part III.” I like the premise. I don’t think this will gross more than “Identity Thief’s” three-day $34.55 million total, in its five days. Movies similar to this gross $19.19 million. Since the marketing has been light, I think this will manage a $28.6 million five-day, and a $21.6 million three-day.

PlanesI don’t like the fact that “Planes” exists. It should have just taken the straight-to-video route.”Cars” was a hard enough sell on me (I still have yet to see it), so there’s no way I’ll be seeing this one. Movies similar to “Planes” open to an average $34.82 million. I guess this is part of an established brand, but it’s just an ole spin-off, “above the world of Cars”. I think this will do better than “The Smurfs 2,” even if the market is really busy for family-friendly fare; because “The Smurfs 2” was already hated by adults before it even came to theatres, and families might give this one more of a fair chance. However, since families have already spent so much money this summer, I’m going to go low and say $20 million.

Percy Jackson 2The “Percy Jackson” franchise seems destined for mediocrity. (I watched the first one, so I’ll post my review soon.) The first scored a worldwide gross of $226 million on a $95 million budget. Though, I doubt “Sea of Monsters” will gross more in its debuting five-day frame than the first one did in its first three days (a $31.236 million tally). And that wasn’t up against much direct competition: “Avatar” ($23.61m) in its ninth week, “Dear John” ($16m) in its second week, the R-rated horror “The Wolfman” ($31.47m) in its first weekend, and the lame rom-com “Valentine’s Day” ($56.26m) in its first weekend. This movie is going up against an already competitive family-friendly market: “Turbo,” “Grown Ups 2,” “Despicable Me 2,” “The Smurfs 2,” and fellow newcomer, “Planes.” Films similar to this open at an average $47.12 million. I think this will gross $26.9 million in its five-day, and I’ll say $19m for the three-day frame.

As for the holdovers, it’ll be interesting to see how the two new family-friendly films affects the already disappointing performance by “The Smurfs 2.” I think the two new releases will be the nail in “Turbo’s” coffin. I also wonder how “We’re the Millers” will affect the performance of “Grown Ups 2″… I guess we’ll see by the end of the weekend. This seems like it’ll be a much busier weekend than last.

Here’s how I see the Top 10:

1. “Elysium”: $38.4m
2. “We’re the Millers”: $21.6m (Five-day: $28.6m)
3. “Planes”: $20.25m
4. “Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters”: $19m (Five-day: $26.9m)
5. “2 Guns”: $15.15m
6. “The Wolverine”: $12.11m
7. “The Smurfs 2”: $9.32m
8. “The Conjuring”: $8.08m
9. “Despicable Me 2“: $6.7m
10. “Grown Ups 2“: $5.15m

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Box Office Predictions: July 26-28

The Wolverine“The Wolverine” has the benefit of opening on a weekend where there isn’t any other blockbuster. Of course, there are the holdovers, but they don’t pose much direct competition.

The five previous X-Men films open to a weighted average of $76.58 million. It will earn less than that number, but not by a wide margin. There are a few bumps in the road this film must overcome.

“X-Men: First Class” showed audiences the X-Men universe can still impress. It was also the lowest-grossing film in the franchise at $146.4 domestically, mostly because of “X-Men Origins: Wolverine”, which faced generally negative reactions. I liked some of it, but the general memory of it leaves a bland taste in my mouth. That film might directly affect this film’s gross, as audience members hate to be disappointed twice. People will come out to see it, but not nearly as many as “X-Men Origins: Wolverine”, because, like I said, some people won’t take the risk. So good word-of-mouth will really help this movie out. I’m going to predict this at $69.8 million. 

I’m thinking “The To Do List” performs similar to “Adventureland” at about $4.9 million for its opening, and “The Way, Way Back” has earned $4.6 million domestically so far, so I think it’ll do $4.4 million this weekend.

Here’s how I see the Top 10:
1. “The Wolverine”: $69, 825, 000
2. “The Conjuring”: $24, 258, 000
3. “Despicable Me 2“: $16, 200, 000
4. “Turbo”: $13, 500, 000
5. “Red 2”: $12, 500, 000
6. “Grown Ups 2“: $10, 000, 000
7. “Pacific Rim“: $7, 800, 000
8. “The Heat“: $5, 600, 000
9. “R.I.P.D.”: $5, 500, 000
10. “Fruitvale Station”: $5, 200, 000

Remember to get your predictions in over at Box Office Ace, it’s lots of fun!

Box Office Predictions: July 19-21

There are four big releases coming out this weekend, so I’ll try to keep my thoughts on each of the movies brief, so this article doesn’t become too tedious. The movies are “The Conjuring”, “Red 2”, “R.I.P.D.” and “Turbo”.

“The Conjuring” will do superb business this weekend. James Wan’s movies have an average opening of $10.9 million. Supernatural horror movies open at an average $15.26 million, but 2013 horror movies have been outstanding in their opening weekend performances. “Mama” opened to $28.4 million back in January, and “The Purge” opened to $34 million last month. Those movies opened to little to no competition. (“Mama” was up against “Broken City” and “The Last Stand”, two under-performing movies; while “The Purge” was up against the modestly-performing “The Internship”.) This movie opens on a busy weekend, but it is heavily anticipated and it has critics raving. Also, since “The Purge” had such poor word-of-mouth, it plummeted from $16.7 million on the Friday to $10.4 million on the Saturday, a day where movies usually earn more than the Friday. Anyway, horror fanatics haven’t received a horror movie since “The Purge” in June, and they haven’t received a good horror movie since April’s “Evil Dead”. Since it is anticipated, has star power (Vera Farmiga, Patrick Wilson), and since it looks great, I’m going to go high with my prediction. I also think this will have phenomenal word-of-mouth, so this will go strong all weekend. I’m predicting $37.5 million for its opening.

“Red 2” is the sequel to 2010’s action comedy hit. It brings back the cast and this one looks really fun. I haven’t seen the first movie, so I’ll be watching the first one sometime this week. The first “Red” opened to $21.76 million back in October 2010, against “Jackass 3-D”, that opened to $50.3 million. “Red” has a good following, though, as it has a standing 7.0 IMDb score based on over 140, 000 user ratings. It is also the tenth-best selling DVD of 2011 (sandwiched between “Transformers: Dark of the Moon” and “Despicable Me”). The movie has a great cast including Bruce Willis, Helen Mirren, Anthony Hopkins and Mary-Louise Parker (who is also starring in “R.I.P.D.”).With this film’s good following, I think this sequel will beat its predecessor in its opening weekend number by a decent-sized margin; so for the three-day weekend, I’m predicting this at $25 million.

“Turbo” is DreamWorks’ latest production, and I think it’ll do well, as family audiences aren’t yet tired of animated movies. They have emptied their pockets on “Monsters University” and those little yellow minions are still dominating the market, so this could very well suffer from competition of those animated movies, and the other new releases. And families just could wait for “The Smurfs 2”. This seems like DreamWorks’ answer to “Cars” and “Ratatouille” in the way that it’s an underdog story. Kids like racing movies, but are they willing to see a racing movie that has a snail going for gold? Of course, Pixar was able to make a rat appealing in “Ratatouille”, but DreamWorks isn’t nearly as respected as Pixar. (But then again, which animated studio is?) And “Epic” had a snail and a slug as supporting characters, but they were there for comic relief, mostly. Anyway, with a decent-looking underdog story and a good voice cast (Ryan Reynolds, Samuel L. Jackson, Ken Jeong), this should do decent business on a busy weekend. For the three-day, I’ll predict $28.8 million; and for the five-day (Wed-Sun), I’m predicting $43 million.

Now that I’ve discussed all the ones I think will do well, this is the one I don’t have a lot of faith in. “R.I.P.D.” looks like fun, but it’s the least appealing out of all of the new releases. The 3D action comedy is adapted from a comic book of the same name, but I don’t see it doing well. Audiences haven’t been showing a lot of enthusiasm for it yet, but I think it’ll still attract a small audience somewhere in the low-teen millions. People like Jeff Bridges and Ryan Reynolds (who’s going to have a busy weekend), but I don’t know if this is on many people’s radars. I think it could do decent business, but it’s going to suffer because of all of the competition. And older action fans will probably just see “Red 2” instead. It’ll break $10 million, I think, but I don’t think it’ll go past the $15 million mark. I’m going to underestimate Bridges and Reynolds’ combined popularity and say an awful $12.8 million.

Here’s how I see the Top 10:
1. The Conjuring: $37, 500, 000
2. Turbo: $28, 800, 000 (5-day: $43M)
3. Red 2: $25, 000, 000
4. Despicable Me 2: $22, 473, 000
5. Pacific Rim: $19, 825, 000
6. Grown Ups 2: $19, 500, 000
7. R.I.P.D.: $12, 800, 000
8. The Heat: $9, 025, 000
9. Monsters University: $6, 000, 000
10. The Lone Ranger: $5, 800, 000

Box Office Predictions: ‘Despicable Me 2’ to crush ‘The Lone Ranger’

box office (1)Despicable Me is one of those universally loved movies. It’s charming, entertaining, heartfelt, and hilarious. Since Monsters University showed that families are willing to spend good amounts of money on animated flicks, Despicable Me 2 is in great condition. And, families might have held out on that – to wait for this. Movies similar to this open to $42.52 million. Despicable Me opened to $56.39 million. There is only three years between the original and this sequel, and that’s great in the animated realm – considering the movies take so long to make. (And there’s a Minions movie coming out December 2014! Woo-hoo! I love those little guys. It’s funny to think that they weren’t made into big henchmen because the studio didn’t have enough funding.) This is one of my most anticipated movies of the year – if not the most anticipated – so to say I’m excited would be an understatement. DM2 has scheduling to its advantage, because Monsters University came out 12 days ago, and that’s almost its only main competition. There’s also the PG-13 rated The Lone Ranger for family audiences and Western movies fans – but I’m not sure how many families will choose that over this. While I don’t think this will exactly manage $100 million in its first 5-day frame, I think it will get close to it; so I’m predicting a $98.3 million opening. 

The Lone Ranger

The other main film debuting this weekend is The Lone Ranger, a Western starring Johnny Depp as Tonto and Armie Hammer as the Lone Ranger; and it is from the creators and director of Pirates of the Caribbean. I think Johnny Depp will give a very similar performance to that of Cap’n Jack Sparrow – but it’ll still be entertaining, nonetheless. I don’t have many expectations for the movie – so hopefully it’ll surprise me. And hopefully it’s decent, too, because the last Pirates disappointed the hell outta me. Movies similar to this open to $43.27 million. I think the scheduling will really screw this up, though. I think this could be a decent money-maker, but the reported $250-million budget is a bit insane. And whoever thought Disney would ever earn that money back is very insane. It doesn’t seem to use a whole lot of CGI, so a good chunk of that must went to Johnny Depp and director Gore Verbinski. Anyway, I’m predicting $51.7 million for its first five-day frame. I think it’s more than likely Disney will be crying about this one for awhile.

Here’s how I see the top 10
1. Despicable Me 2: $76, 300, 000 (5-day: $98.3 million)
2. The Lone Ranger: $35, 700, 000 (5-day: $51.7 million)
3. Monsters University: $24, 075, 000 (my review)
4. The Heat: $23, 600, 000 (my review)
5. World War Z: $15, 050, 000 (my review)
6. White House Down: $13, 475, 000
7. Man of Steel: $10, 625, 000 (my review)
8. This is the End: $5, 600, 000 (my review)
9. Now You See Me: $3, 950, 000 (my review)
10. Fast & Furious 6: $1, 850, 000 (my review)

Despicable Me 2

Box Office Predictions: ‘The Heat’, ‘White House Down’

 

The HeatComedy movies have performing fairly well so far this year. A few bombed (Movie 43), a few opened to expectations (This is the End), and a few impressed (Identity Thief). Now, it’s time to see how the Sandra Bullock/Melissa McCarthy buddy comedy will perform. I think it will out-do Identity Thief, but not by a huge amount. It seems extremely vulgar, but funny. This is going up against White House Down and the competition of World War Z, and Monsters University in their second weekends. This and WHD are in a real battle of the sexes. I’m looking forward to seeing this, and movies similar to this open to an average $24.68 million. Melissa McCarthy is pretty popular, as well. I’m indifferent about her; I like on her on TV’s Mike and Molly, but I’m not a huge fan of the kind-of role she plays in Bridesmaids: dirty and vulgar. I don’t hate that role, because it’s good once or twice, but I think it’s going to become tiring very quickly. I think the role could be gold, however, matched up with Sandra Bullock. And director Paul Fieg. I think this could find some great success this weekend, mostly because there aren’t many other films targeting females in the market right now (and so many are for men), so I’m predicting it at $41.9 million.

White House DownWhite House Down looks pretty good, but it’s as if we’ve already seen it earlier this year with Olympus Has Fallen. That movie earned $30.37 million in its opening weekend, so this really should gross more than that surprise hit, with bigger stars and director. I also think the advertising campaign is kind-of brilliant, in the way that they only portray the villain as a familiar voice. I think it really adds to the mystery of it all. Movies similar to this open to $31.25 million. Channing Tatum has an average opening of $22.6 million. Jamie Foxx has an average opening of $19.2 million. Roland Emmerich, the director, has an average opening of $39.15 million, which I think is the ideal ballpark for this. His movies are almost always lots of fun (even though one of his more serious pictures, Anonymous, was very boring). In this weekend’s battle of the sexes, I think this actioner will lose to The Heat and earn $40.3 million. The two movies might just be going head to head all weekend.

box office

Here’s how I see the Top 10

1. Monsters University [review]: $44, 900, 000
2. The Heat: $41, 900, 000
3. White House Down: $40, 300, 000
4. World War Z [review]: $28, 160, 000
5. Man of Steel [review]: $23, 600, 000
6. This is the End [review]: $8, 500, 000
7. Now You See Me [review]: $5, 300, 000
8. Fast & Furious 6 [review]: $3, 345, 000
9. The Purge [review]: $2, 400, 000
10. The Internship: $2, 100, 000

 

 

May 10-12 Box Office Predictions: ‘The Great Gatsby’ and ‘Peeples’

History isn’t on The Great Gatsby‘s side. For whatever reason, Warner Bros. shows the preference to release summer movies on the second weekend, where they can either flop or prosper, based on the reception of the movie that starts the summer. They can either do decent business (Dark Shadows opened to $29.68 million against The Avengers; and Robin Hood opened to $36.06 million against Iron Man 2), or they could really prosper (Star Trek opened to $75.2 million against X-Men Origins: Wolverine). I think Gatsby will perform well, even if history isn’t on its side. This gives movie-goers a unique choice other than super-hero movies and movies with lots of explosions. I’m not sure if a lot of the younger demographic will come and see this, because many may have read it in high school and hated it, but they also could have loved it. The main appeal for the young’ns, I think, is Leo DiCaprio.  DiCaprio’s movies have an average opening of $22.28M, and the rest of the cast includes Tobey Maguire, Carey Mulligan, Isla Fisher and Joel Edgerton; and it is directed by a man of style, Baz Luhrmann. The 3D might also help the movie make a little extra money. Similar movies open to an average $23.14 million. This hardly stands a chance at beating Iron Man 3 this weekend, but I expect a healthy opening between Robin Hood‘s $36.06M opening and Shutter Island’s $41.06M, so I’ll go with $39, 198, 750.

The other movie coming out this weekend is Tyler Perry Presents Peeples, a movie starring Craig Robinson and Kerry Washington. It had an extremely light advertising campaign. It looks like it could turn out to be a decent film, that makes me think of Meet the Parents and every black comedy that’s set at a family reunion. It’s up against Gatsby and that Iron Man 3 holdover, but I think this could comfortably take third place for the weekend. There’s always a decent market for this types of movies, so I think it really has the ability to score in the low teen millions. Movies similar to this open to $19.02 million, but this really won’t go that high. Temptation opened well to $21.6 million, but a similar low-grossing comedy that opened the other week, The Big Wedding, only managed a bad $7.59 million opening. I won’t underestimate the power of the Perry this time around, but since the last two wedding/marriage themed movies haven’t performed well (The Five-Year Engagement opened to $10.61 million), I’ll only predict it at $13, 835, 000 million.

Here’s how I see the top 10:
1. Iron Man 3: $73, 840, 000
2. The Great Gatsby: $39, 198, 750
3. Peeples: $13, 835, 000
4. Pain and Gain: $3, 825, 000
5. 42: $3, 294, 000
6. The Croods: $3, 202, 000
7. Oblivion: $2, 650, 000
8. Mud: $2, 185, 000
9. The Big Wedding: $2, 000, 000
10. Oz The Great and Powerful: $1, 885, 000

May 3-5 Box Office Results

Iron Man 3 now has the second highest opening weekend of all-time, with a $174.1 million opening. Bring on the summer season!

Title: Result Prediction Difference (Over/Under)
1. Iron Man 3: $174,144,585 $166.016M $8, 128, 585 under
2. Pain and Gain: $7,511,315 — $9, 595, 900 — $2, 084, 585 over
3. 42: $6,055,327 — $6, 219, 950 — $164, 623 over
4. Oblivion: $5,642,335 — $8, 259, 800 — $2, 617, 465 over
5. The Croods: $4,202,639 — $4, 670, 500 — $467, 861 over
6. The Big Wedding: $3,881,857 — $4, 360, 210 — $478, 353 over
7. Mud: $2,160,319 — $2.3M — $139, 681 over
9. Scary Movie 5: $1,441,360 — $1, 770, 305 — $328, 945 over
11. G.I. Joe: Retaliation: $1,270,094 $2.2M $929, 906 over
12. Olympus Has Fallen: $1,194,650 $1.74M  $545, 350 over

Total difference for one new release: $8, 128, 585
Total difference for nine (9) holdovers: $7, 756, 769