August 9-11 Box Office Results

“Elysium” had the strongest debut so far this month, and it will probably have the highest debut throughout August. However, its $29.8 million debut is a little disappointing; considering “District 9” had a $37.3 million debut back in August 2009 with no star power. It was the best release of the weekend critically, with a 65% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. However, it only had a ‘B’ Cinemascore, so that’s also a little disappointing.

“We’re the Millers” had a surprisingly good debut in second place with $26.4 million. It received an ‘A-‘ Cinemascore, and it should hold well throughout its run – with no pure comedies coming out until August 23rd’s “The World’s End.”

“Planes” received an ‘A-‘ Cinemascore on a $22.2 million debut. It was enough to earn it third place, but not enough for me to see it. There’s already a sequel on its way, so that kind-of sucks. “Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters” had a middling $14.4 million, but it earned $23.25 million in its first five days.

With four releases coming out this weekend, it seems as if “We’re the Millers” will have the best holdover. Here’s how the Top 10 performed:

Title: Prediction/Result/Difference

1. Elysium: $38.4m/$29.807m/$8.593m over
2. We’re the Millers (5-day): $28.6m/$37.908m/$9.308m over
3. Planes: $20.25m/$22.232m/$1.982 over
4. Percy Jackson 2 (5-day): $26.9m/$23.258/$3.642m over
5. 2 Guns: $15.15m/$11.249m/$3.901m over
6. The Smurfs: $9.32m/$9, 328, 495/$8,495 under
7. The Wolverine: $12.11m/$8.024m/$4.086m over
8. The Conjuring: $8.08m/$6.627m/$1.453m over
9. Despicable Me 2: $6.7m/$5.915m/$785, 000 over
10. Grown Ups 2: $5.15m/$3.645m/$1.505m over

For the four (4) new releases, I was off by $23.525 million.
For the six (6) holdovers, I was off by $11, 738, 495.

‘2 Guns’ wins the weekend, ‘The Smurfs 2’ flops

“2 Guns” did decent business with a $27.059 million opening, and that’s great considering this R-rated action comedy defeated a new PG-animated sequel, “The Smurfs 2,” which really disappointed with a $17.548 million. (This makes me glad, because it probably means “Planes” won’t do so handsomely, either. So families really didn’t smurf up by going to see it.) I guess since adults hated the first so much, they didn’t take their kids to it because they’re the ones who make the buying decisions. It’s unfortunate that “2 Guns” won’t make it to $100 million by the ends of its run, especially with its only decent B+ CinemaScore. “The Wolverine” had a good holdover, dropping 59.9% to $21.324 million, which is about the same pace as “X-Men: First Class.” My prediction was way too high (whoops). “The Conjuring” came in fourth place with $13.027 million, bringing its new total up to $107.956 million. Since “The Smurfs 2” didn’t have the greatest opening, “Despicable Me 2” only dropped 38.6% to $10.134 million. (And “Turbo” had a 54.7% drop down to $6.228 million.) It looks like “The Smurfs 2” and “Turbo” won’t be doing awesome business after two family-friendly flicks come out next weekend (“Planes,” “Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters), so we’ll see what happens with that.

Anyway, here’s how the Top 10 performed:

2 GunsTitle: Prediction/Result/Difference
1. 2 Guns: $33.8 million/$27.059 million/$6.741 million over
2. The Wolverine: $27.15 million/$21.324 million/$5.826 million over
3. The Smurfs 2 (five-day): $39.34 million/$27.109 million/$12.231 million over
4. The Conjuring: $12.85 million/$13.027 million/$177, 000 under
5. Despicable Me 2: $10.1 million/10.134 million/$34, 000 under
6. Grown Ups 2: $6.96 million/$7.945 million/$985, 000 under
7. Turbo: $8.56 million/$6.228 million/$2.332 million over
8. Red 2: $5.26 million/$5.556 million/$296, 000 under
9. The Heat: $4.844 million/$4.623 million/$221, 000 over
10. Pacific Rim: $4.035 million/$4.49 million/$455, 000 under

For the two new releases, I was off by a total of $18.972 million.
For the eight holdovers, I was off by a total of $10.326 million.

Box Office Results July 26-28. (I can’t think of a clever title.)

The Wolverine“The Wolverine” did good business this weekend, but not nearly as great as everyone thought it would be. While it was tracking for a $70 million opening, it was only able to nab a $53.114 million opening. This opening should be attributed to the fact that the disappointing “X-Men Origins: Wolverine” disappointed many, so it kept some people away, and audiences are probably just fatigued of this superhero craze and all the explosions. (That makes me question how well “Kick-Ass 2” might do?) Since “Wolverine” did receive an ‘A-‘ Cinemascore, that should say it’ll have good legs. More good news: It’s already earned back its $120-million budget with its $139.2M worldwide tally.

As for the holdovers, “The Conjuring” continues to scare everyone as it had a drop of -46.9% to $22.2 million. That is a great hold for a horror film, where they traditionally face drops over 50%. (“The Purge” faced a drop of 76%!) “Turbo” also held well, dropping 35.5% to $13.74 million. Its box office performance will be thrown off pace when “The Smurfs 2” gets released on Wednesday, and it will be killed by the competition of “Planes”, come August 9th. It’s a very competitive market for animated movies, as “Despicable Me 2” is still going strong with a weekend gross of $16.4 million. “Grown Ups 2” was also in the Top 5 this weekend with $11.6 million, and it’s the 14th Adam Sandler movie to gross over $100 million. That isn’t exactly music to my ears, since I have such a low opinion of “GU2.”

“Fruitvale Station” found its way into the Top 10 with $4.59 million this weekend. “The Way, Way Back” earned $3.44 million and Woody Allen’s “Blue Jasmine” made $612, 064 at just six theatres, marking a career best Per Theatre Average for Woody Allen, and the best PTA of the year so far. Finally, “The To-Do List” grossed a miniature $1.58 million at 591 theatres, which is surprising considering I’ve basically seen the trailer before every comedy I’ve seen for the past month.

What did you all see this weekend? I didn’t get out to the theatre (well, I did last Thursday to see “White House Down”) this weekend, but I’m planning to see “The Way, Way Back” and “Much Ado About Nothing” this week. Maybe “2 Guns” on the weekend. I won’t be seeing “The Smurfs 2.” I just couldn’t take it. I’ll see what happens. I’m thinking of going through a comedian’s full filmography throughout the first half of August and posting the reviews throughout the second half. I’ll make an announcement post soon, but in the meantime, you’ll have to wonder who the comedian is. (Note: Half of their filmography is torture, and half of it I like. So I’m watching half of the comedian’s filmography for your entertainment, and half of it for mine.) Anyway, here’s how much I was off by for each movie in the Top 10:

Title: Result/Prediction/Difference

1. The Wolverine: $53.114M/$69.825M/$16.711M over
2. The Conjuring: $22.208M/$24.258M/$2.05M over
3. Despicable Me 2: $16.424M/$16.2M/$224, 000 under
4. Turbo: $13.74M/$13.5M/$240, 000 under
5. Grown Ups 2: $11.6M/$10M/$1.6M under
6. Red 2: $9.337M/$12.5M/$3.163M over
7. Pacific Rim: $7.703M/$7.8M/$97, 000 over
8. The Heat: $6.915M/$5.6M/$1.315M under
9. R.I.P.D.: $6.071M/5.5M/$571, 000 under
10. Fruitvale Station: $4.59M/$5.2M/$610, 000 over

For the one new release, I was off by $16.711 million.
For the nine holdovers, I was off by $9.87 million.

Remember to get your predictions in at Box Office Ace! You can get your prediction in for 2 Guns here, and your prediction for The Smurfs 2 here.

Remember to

“The Conjuring” scares a big audience, Snails and Retired Spies do okay, “R.I.P.D.” bombs hard

New releases from the weekend that are still on my watchlist: The ConjuringR.I.P.D.Red 2Turbo. So, all of them!

I’ve realized that I haven’t been a good box office analyst. I’ve been posting my predictions, but neglecting to report the results. This weekend, I’ll change that. At the beginning of 2013, it was looking like this year wouldn’t even match up to 2012 – but it’s catching up at a rapid rate. Through June, 2013 was 2.1% behind 2012. As of the end of this weekend, it is behind 1.1%. That is impressive considering this weekend was 19% behind last year, as “The Dark Knight Rises” single-handedly grossed $160.8 million. It’s looking like 2013 could match 2012’s number with some big blockbusters still to come: “The Wolverine”, “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”, and “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire” this fall, to name a few. Anyway, let’s get to this weekend.

“Turbo” opened to $21.3 million and has earned $31 million through its first five days. That’s the worst opening for a DreamWorks Animation since 2006’s “Wallace and Gromit”, and it’s even less than last year’s “Rise of the Guardians“. It could have legs because of its rewarded ‘A’ Cinemascore, but family audiences chose those yellow minions again (“DM2” earned $24.9 million this weekend) over snail racing. DreamWorks can only hope that snail racing is big overseas. I guess at least this poor outing says “The Smurfs 2” might not do so grandly, as family audiences have only so much money to spend in a month. (But since it opens at the very beginning of August, it might not be affected.)

“The Conjuring” was the big winner this weekend with a huge $41.8 million opening, so take that “The Purge“! It is now the second-largest opening weekend for an R-rated horror movie behind “Paranormal Activity 2”. That’s great for it because it looks really scary and I want to see it. It had a great marketing campaign, it looked terrifying, and people turned out to see it. It also came at a time where there were no horror movies on the market (well besides “The Purge” which is now only in 156 theatres). It will have great box office legs, because it was rewarded an ‘A-‘ Cinemascore, which, for the horror genre, is super rare.

“Red 2” had a soft opening with $18 million. The first movie grossed $21.7 million in its opening, so it seems that audiences thought it looked too similar to its predecessor, a problem “The Expendables 2” faced. I was optimistic with my prediction of $25 million because I thought that since it had really high DVD sales and the first had great legs, “Red 2” would do better business. I was wrong by $7 million. I didn’t factor in that the older audiences that this is aimed at is perfectly content to either wait for the DVD or go during the week when the crowds aren’t as big. Dang it! (By the way, I’ll probably be posting my review of “Red” soon.)

The only movie I was really close with was “R.I.P.D.”, which is standing at 11% on Rotten Tomatoes. I’m seeing it tomorrow, because I like to see everything, but audiences just were not interested in this “Men in Black” rip-off as it only debuted to $12.69 million. (I predicted $12.8M, woo-hoo!) And its budget was $130 million or so. Talk about one of the biggest bombs in recent memory! “Red 2” was its direct competition and that one came out on top. I think this movie looks fun, but audiences just didn’t bite. I’m not surprised one bit.

Here’s how the Top 10 performed! And if you missed any of my reviews, just click on the link to read it.

Title: Result/Prediction/Difference (Over/Under)
1. “The Conjuring”: $41.855M/$37.5M/$4.355M under
2. “Despicable Me 2: $24.906M/$22.473M/$2.433M under
3. “Turbo”: $21.312M/$28.8M/$7.488M over
4. “Grown Ups 2”: $19.872M/$19.5M/$372, 000 under
5. “Red 2”: $18.048M/$25M/$6.952M over
6. “Pacific Rim: $16.002M/$19.825M/$3.823 over
7. “R.I.P.D.”: $12.691M/$12.8M/$109, 000 over
8. “The Heat: $9.303M/$9.025M/$278, 000 under
9. “World War Z: $5.191M/NA/NA
10. “Monsters University: $5.121M/$6M/$879, 000 over

For the four new releases, I was off by a grand total of: $18, 904, 000

For the five holdovers I predicted in the top 10, I was off by a grand total of: $7, 785, 000

Did any of you go to the theatre this weekend? I saw “Grown Ups 2” on Saturday, don’t ask me why. Expect the review tomorrow. 

‘Oblivion’ Starts off Blockbuster Season with $37M

The following article is courtesy of Joe over at Two Dude Review. Also, I’m a part of a box office game with him and a few others (Nick of Cinematic Katzenjammer, Shane of FilmRehab, and Jason and Trevor, both of Movie Mavericks). It’s pretty fun, silly me for waiting until now to mention it. Trevor of Movie Mavericks has also started a user-friendly website called Box Office Ace where anyone can predict the box office. If you’re interested in predicting, just register and test your luck, it’s free and fun! 

Unlike last weekend, where the box office was off just a slight bit from the same weekend last year, this past weekend’s difference was significant. 2013′s weekend #16 was off by 18.1% compared to 2012, bringing the current year’s deficit back up to 11.3%. With some big names attached to Pain and Gain and Big Wedding this coming weekend offers a little bit of opportunity for ground to be made up, thanks in part to last year’s weak offerings for the same weekend. Unfortunately, after this weekend it’s going to take a lot of box office hits to match-up with the box office greatness that was The Avengers.

Opening at more than $37 million, Oblivion gave Tom Cruise his biggest opening weekend since Mission: Impossible III. The opening weekend figure may not seem all that impressive, when you take its $120 million budget into consideration. However, once you factor in Oblivion‘s $112 million haul overseas already, the film is a definite hit. Its ‘B-’ Cinemascore tells us that film wasn’t terrible, but wasn’t all that buzz worthy and Rotten Tomatoes pretty much echoes that sentiment with critic scoring the film 57% fresh and 68% of audience liking the film. IMDB’s 7.2 rating, however, indicates there is an audience for the film.

To go to any of my reviews, just click the link.

Title: Result — Prediction — Difference (Over/Under)
1. Oblivion: $37,054,485 — $38, 900, 000 ­– $1, 845, 515 over
2. 42: $17,721,410 — $20, 850, 000 — $3, 128, 590 over
3. The Croods: $9,235,295 — $8, 920, 000 — $315, 295 under
4. Scary Movie 5: $6,150,584 — $5, 420, 000 — $730, 584 under
5. G.I. Joe: Retaliation: $5,763,891 — $6M — $236, 109 over
6. The Place Beyond the Pines: $4,917,545 — $6.25M– $1, 332, 455 over
7. Olympus Has Fallen: $4,475,543 — $4.9M — $424, 457 over
8. Evil Dead (2013)$4,112,001 — $4, 500, 000 — $387, 999 over
9. Jurassic Park 3D: $4,054,285 — $5, 000, 000 — $945, 715 over
10. Oz The Great and Powerful: $3,004,644 — $2.8M — $204, 644 over

Total difference for one (1) new release: $1, 845, 515

Total difference for nine (9) holdovers: $7, 705, 848