June 6-8 Box Office Predictions: ‘The Fault in Our Stars’ to top ‘Edge of Tomorrow’

The Fault in Our StarsEdge of TomorrowThere are two big new releases for the box office this weekend. One is Edge of Tomorrow, a sci-fi action vehicle starring Tom Cruise and Emily Blunt. The other is a romantic drama The Fault in Our Stars, based on the acclaimed novel of the same name by John Green.

I’ll start with Edge of Tomorrow. With last year’s Oblivion, Cruise proved he can be a mild box office draw, expressed through the film’s solid $37 million debut. Personally, I think this premise looks more intriguing, and it looks like it has a fun sense of humour. I also love that electronic music in the background of the trailer. The tune got stuck in my head quickly. I think this film adds some appeal with comedic and dramatic actress Emily Blunt in her first attempt at the science fiction genre. What is more appealing is that this looks like an easier plot to follow than Source Code and even the sometimes baffling Oblivion. I see this making $32.8 million this weekend. The reason I’m not going up to $35 million is because last year’s Elysium showed that science fiction could muster disappointing numbers, as it only had an opening weekend of $29.8 million.

The Fault in Our Stars also looks good. It stars Shailene Woodley and Ansel Elgort. To me, it looks like A Walk to Remember, hold the extreme cheesiness. Pre-ticket sales for this film suggest that it’s out-pacing The Vow and Safe Haven. Probably because of fans of the novel, and the star power of Woodley. I haven’t read the book, and I’m trying to decide if I want to before I see the film. I’m predicting this as the winner this weekend at $43 million.

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March 28-30 Box Office Predictions: Swear words and Sabotage of biblical proportions

box office (1)Jason Bateman’s Bad Words is one of the new releases coming out this weekend, but it’s been in limited release since the 14th of March, and has grossed $837 thousand. It premiered at TIFF back in September, and it looks pretty awesome. Since one of the taglines is “suck my dictionary,” I’m really excited. I think it looks hilarious. I don’t think this will gross a lot this weekend; but I think $6.7 million is a good enough expectation.

Noah will be the winner this weekend. I think it’s more than guaranteed it’ll gross around $30 million this weekend, and $40 million is very likely, but I think it’ll be a huge surprise hit, much like last year’s World War Z. It’s of one of the three Biblical movies this weekend; it’s the second one after Son of God, and the next one will be Exodus. This stars Russell Crowe as the titular Noah; and it also stars Jennifer Connelly, Emma Watson and Logan Lerman. It’s directed by Darren Aronofsky. I’m ecstatic to see this. The story of Noah fascinates me, and I’m excited to see a new film about it, and I love Aronofsky’s style. I’ve only seen his film Black Swan, but I’m excited to see more. Similar films open to $33.49 million. My prediction for this film is $56.5 million.

Sabotage is David Ayer’s newest film starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, Malin Akerman and Sam Worthington. I think this film looks promising. Movies similar to this open at $13.86 million. I’m curious to see if Schwarzenegger’s star power and Ayer’s direction will allow this to gross near End of Watch‘s $13.15 million. Both of Schwarzenegger’s starring vehicles since his comeback haven’t grossed double digits in its opening weekend (excluding The Expendables 2). The Last Stand was a fun movie that made $6.3 million in its opening, and Escape Plan made $9.9 million (so close). Since Arnie obviously doesn’t have as much star power as he once did, but I’m going to say this grosses $9.5 million in its opening weekend.

Here’s how I see the Top 10:

1. Noah: $56.5 million
2. Divergent: $28 million
3. Muppets Most Wanted: $10.883 million
4. Sabotage: $9.5 million
5. The Grand Budapest Hotel: $9 million
6. Bad Words: $6.7 million
7. Mr. Peabody & Sherman: $6.3 million
8. God’s Not Dead: $6 million
9. 300: Rise of An Empire: $4.2 million
10. Need for Speed: $3.8 million

“The Conjuring” scares a big audience, Snails and Retired Spies do okay, “R.I.P.D.” bombs hard

New releases from the weekend that are still on my watchlist: The ConjuringR.I.P.D.Red 2Turbo. So, all of them!

I’ve realized that I haven’t been a good box office analyst. I’ve been posting my predictions, but neglecting to report the results. This weekend, I’ll change that. At the beginning of 2013, it was looking like this year wouldn’t even match up to 2012 – but it’s catching up at a rapid rate. Through June, 2013 was 2.1% behind 2012. As of the end of this weekend, it is behind 1.1%. That is impressive considering this weekend was 19% behind last year, as “The Dark Knight Rises” single-handedly grossed $160.8 million. It’s looking like 2013 could match 2012’s number with some big blockbusters still to come: “The Wolverine”, “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”, and “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire” this fall, to name a few. Anyway, let’s get to this weekend.

“Turbo” opened to $21.3 million and has earned $31 million through its first five days. That’s the worst opening for a DreamWorks Animation since 2006’s “Wallace and Gromit”, and it’s even less than last year’s “Rise of the Guardians“. It could have legs because of its rewarded ‘A’ Cinemascore, but family audiences chose those yellow minions again (“DM2” earned $24.9 million this weekend) over snail racing. DreamWorks can only hope that snail racing is big overseas. I guess at least this poor outing says “The Smurfs 2” might not do so grandly, as family audiences have only so much money to spend in a month. (But since it opens at the very beginning of August, it might not be affected.)

“The Conjuring” was the big winner this weekend with a huge $41.8 million opening, so take that “The Purge“! It is now the second-largest opening weekend for an R-rated horror movie behind “Paranormal Activity 2”. That’s great for it because it looks really scary and I want to see it. It had a great marketing campaign, it looked terrifying, and people turned out to see it. It also came at a time where there were no horror movies on the market (well besides “The Purge” which is now only in 156 theatres). It will have great box office legs, because it was rewarded an ‘A-‘ Cinemascore, which, for the horror genre, is super rare.

“Red 2” had a soft opening with $18 million. The first movie grossed $21.7 million in its opening, so it seems that audiences thought it looked too similar to its predecessor, a problem “The Expendables 2” faced. I was optimistic with my prediction of $25 million because I thought that since it had really high DVD sales and the first had great legs, “Red 2” would do better business. I was wrong by $7 million. I didn’t factor in that the older audiences that this is aimed at is perfectly content to either wait for the DVD or go during the week when the crowds aren’t as big. Dang it! (By the way, I’ll probably be posting my review of “Red” soon.)

The only movie I was really close with was “R.I.P.D.”, which is standing at 11% on Rotten Tomatoes. I’m seeing it tomorrow, because I like to see everything, but audiences just were not interested in this “Men in Black” rip-off as it only debuted to $12.69 million. (I predicted $12.8M, woo-hoo!) And its budget was $130 million or so. Talk about one of the biggest bombs in recent memory! “Red 2” was its direct competition and that one came out on top. I think this movie looks fun, but audiences just didn’t bite. I’m not surprised one bit.

Here’s how the Top 10 performed! And if you missed any of my reviews, just click on the link to read it.

Title: Result/Prediction/Difference (Over/Under)
1. “The Conjuring”: $41.855M/$37.5M/$4.355M under
2. “Despicable Me 2: $24.906M/$22.473M/$2.433M under
3. “Turbo”: $21.312M/$28.8M/$7.488M over
4. “Grown Ups 2”: $19.872M/$19.5M/$372, 000 under
5. “Red 2”: $18.048M/$25M/$6.952M over
6. “Pacific Rim: $16.002M/$19.825M/$3.823 over
7. “R.I.P.D.”: $12.691M/$12.8M/$109, 000 over
8. “The Heat: $9.303M/$9.025M/$278, 000 under
9. “World War Z: $5.191M/NA/NA
10. “Monsters University: $5.121M/$6M/$879, 000 over

For the four new releases, I was off by a grand total of: $18, 904, 000

For the five holdovers I predicted in the top 10, I was off by a grand total of: $7, 785, 000

Did any of you go to the theatre this weekend? I saw “Grown Ups 2” on Saturday, don’t ask me why. Expect the review tomorrow. 

Box Office Predictions: ‘The Heat’, ‘White House Down’

 

The HeatComedy movies have performing fairly well so far this year. A few bombed (Movie 43), a few opened to expectations (This is the End), and a few impressed (Identity Thief). Now, it’s time to see how the Sandra Bullock/Melissa McCarthy buddy comedy will perform. I think it will out-do Identity Thief, but not by a huge amount. It seems extremely vulgar, but funny. This is going up against White House Down and the competition of World War Z, and Monsters University in their second weekends. This and WHD are in a real battle of the sexes. I’m looking forward to seeing this, and movies similar to this open to an average $24.68 million. Melissa McCarthy is pretty popular, as well. I’m indifferent about her; I like on her on TV’s Mike and Molly, but I’m not a huge fan of the kind-of role she plays in Bridesmaids: dirty and vulgar. I don’t hate that role, because it’s good once or twice, but I think it’s going to become tiring very quickly. I think the role could be gold, however, matched up with Sandra Bullock. And director Paul Fieg. I think this could find some great success this weekend, mostly because there aren’t many other films targeting females in the market right now (and so many are for men), so I’m predicting it at $41.9 million.

White House DownWhite House Down looks pretty good, but it’s as if we’ve already seen it earlier this year with Olympus Has Fallen. That movie earned $30.37 million in its opening weekend, so this really should gross more than that surprise hit, with bigger stars and director. I also think the advertising campaign is kind-of brilliant, in the way that they only portray the villain as a familiar voice. I think it really adds to the mystery of it all. Movies similar to this open to $31.25 million. Channing Tatum has an average opening of $22.6 million. Jamie Foxx has an average opening of $19.2 million. Roland Emmerich, the director, has an average opening of $39.15 million, which I think is the ideal ballpark for this. His movies are almost always lots of fun (even though one of his more serious pictures, Anonymous, was very boring). In this weekend’s battle of the sexes, I think this actioner will lose to The Heat and earn $40.3 million. The two movies might just be going head to head all weekend.

box office

Here’s how I see the Top 10

1. Monsters University [review]: $44, 900, 000
2. The Heat: $41, 900, 000
3. White House Down: $40, 300, 000
4. World War Z [review]: $28, 160, 000
5. Man of Steel [review]: $23, 600, 000
6. This is the End [review]: $8, 500, 000
7. Now You See Me [review]: $5, 300, 000
8. Fast & Furious 6 [review]: $3, 345, 000
9. The Purge [review]: $2, 400, 000
10. The Internship: $2, 100, 000

 

 

Identity Thief, Side Effects (Box Office Predictions: 2/8 – 2/10/13)

The new releases

Identity Thief

Identity Thief

Side Effects

Side Effects

 

 

 

 

The two new movies coming to theaters this weekend is Seth Gordon’s Identity Thief, starring Melissa McCarthy as the woman who steals the identity of Sandy Patterson, played by Jason Bateman. He is playing the straight man, and it’s a role he plays very well in the comedy genre. It will definitely get over $20 million this weekend because it has no competition in the comedy genre yet this year (Movie 43 seems to be rushing out of theaters) and it could turn out to be the first good comedy of the year. However, the Rotten Tomatoes critics’ appreciation of the film may state otherwise (as of now, 24% of critics have liked it). Melissa McCarthy is very popular, it has a solid premise, and it could turn out to be surprisingly good. I hope. I also really hope they didn’t show all the funny scenes in its trailers. It really was a large marketing campaign.

Side Effects is a little more on the down-low. I have seen many TV spot trailers but I can’t recall seeing the trailer at the movie theaters. It is being advertised as a star-studded clinical thriller from the creator of Contagion. The story goes like this: Emily and Martin are a successful New York couple whose world unravels when a new drug prescribed by Emily’s psychiatrist – intended to treat anxiety – has unexpected side effects.

It really does sound intriguing, and Soderbergh rarely brings a stinker (even though I didn’t enjoy Michael Clayton). I have expectations for this one, and I think it will gross at least $10 million this weekend. Also, part of the attraction is the cast that includes Jude Law, Rooney Mara, Channing Tatum and Catherine Zeta-Jones.

 

Here’s how I see the top 10: 

Title/Prediction

1. Identity Thief/ $24, 000, 000
2. Warm Bodies/ $13, 100, 000
3. Side Effects/ $12, 200, 000
4. Silver Linings Playbook/ $6, 000, 000
5. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters/ $4, 100, 000
6. Mama/ $2, 900, 000
7. Zero Dark Thirty/ $2, 600, 000
8. Bullet to the Head/ $2, 500, 000
9. Argo/ $2, 200, 000
10. Django Unchained/ $1, 700, 000

Warm Bodies Scares Away the Competition (February 1-3 Box Office Results)

"I'm da winner zombie!"

“I’m da winner zombie!”

Warm Bodies opened to a great $20.3 million on the Superbowl weekend, and it’s also a really good film. Stand Up Guys opened to $1.5 million at 659 theaters, which is pretty decent. However, Sly proves that this is not a good year for solo outings for The Expendables co-stars. Arnie’s vehicle, The Last Stand, only grossed $6.2 million in its opening weekend; and Jason Statham’s vehicle, Parker, only grossed $7 million in its opening weekend.  Click the title for my review.

Top 10 Box Office, The Results (Estimates)

My Prediction/Off by (Over/Under)

1. Warm Bodies*$20, 353, 967

– $18, 700, 000$1, 653, 967 under

*Review will be up on Friday

2. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters$9,423,274

– $12, 400, 000$2, 976, 726 over

3.  Silver Linings Playbook$7,738,058

– $7, 650, 000$88, 058 under

4. Mama: $6,590,970

– $5, 620, 000$970, 970 under

5. Zero Dark Thirty$5,176,428

– $5, 530, 000$353, 572 over

6. Bullet to the Head$4,548,201

– $9, 200, 000$4, 651, 799 over

7. Parker$3,302,415

– $4, 065, 000$762, 585 over

8. Django Unchained: $3,002,769

– $2, 920, 000$82, 769 under

9. Les Misérables: $2,420,885

– N/A.

10. Lincoln$2,402,224

– N/A.

Other predictions

15. Movie 43$1, 641, 849

– $1, 970, 000$328, 151 over

18. Stand Up Guys$1,486,390

– $2, 000, 000$513, 610 over

New releases total difference: $6, 819, 376

Holdovers total difference: $5, 562, 831

November 9-11 Box Office Results

Skyfall raked in a majority of the dough this weekend, with $90 million (including Thursday’s earnings)! It so deserved it, too, because it’s just about one of the finest action films of the year, and it is generally one of the best of the year as well! And Lincoln took in an impressive $900, 000 at eleven theatres this weekend. Also, at least surprising to me, Pitch Perfect sneaked into the Top 10 this weekend at #8, but that’s pretty sweet for it!   Well, now to the numbers!

And, if you missed any of my reviews of the movies in the Top 10 Box Office, just click the link on the title and it will lead you right to it!

Top 10 Box Office, The Results (Estimates)

1. Skyfall: $87, 800, 000

2. Wreck-It Ralph$33, 056, 000

3. Flight: $15, 100, 000

4. Argo$6, 745, 000

5. Taken 2$4, 000, 000

6. Here Comes the Boom$2, 550, 000

7. Cloud Atlas$2, 525, 000

8. Pitch Perfect$2, 504, 000

9. The Man with the Iron Fists$2, 490, 000

10. Hotel Transylvania$2, 350, 000

My Box Office Predictions (Title/Prediction/Off by(+/-))

1. Skyfall/ $85, 000, 000(-) $2, 800, 000

2. Wreck-It Ralph$42, 800, 000(+) $9, 744, 000

3. Flight$19, 000, 000(+) $3, 900, 000

4. Argo$8, 500, 000(+) $1, 755, 000

5. Taken 2$5, 000, 000(+) $1, 000, 000

6. Here Comes the Boom$2, 250, 000(-) $300, 000

7. Cloud Atlas$4, 200, 000(+) $1, 675, 000

9. The Man with the Iron Fists$6, 200, 000(+) $3, 710, 000

10. Hotel Transylvania$3, 100, 000(+) $750, 000

Other Predictions: 

11. Paranormal Activity 4$2, 800, 000(+) $780, 000

15. Lincoln$328, 000(-) $572, 000

I was off by a grand total of $25, 634, 000.

Did any of you get to the theatres this weekend, or have any time to watch any movies (in general)?

My reviews of other films in theatres

Chasing Mavericks

The Dark Knight Rises

End of Watch

House at the End of the Street

Looper

The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Seven Psychopaths

Sinister

Ted

Trouble with the Curve

I’ve been putting these reviews at the bottom of my results article because I’m trying to get a little bit more traffic for them (in case you readers missed the reviews). And I, just now, realized by revealing the scores, it isn’t any good at getting more traffic. Who wants to read a review when they already know the score I gave it? I don’t think I’d do very well working in advertising…