Box Office Predictions: July 19-21

There are four big releases coming out this weekend, so I’ll try to keep my thoughts on each of the movies brief, so this article doesn’t become too tedious. The movies are “The Conjuring”, “Red 2”, “R.I.P.D.” and “Turbo”.

“The Conjuring” will do superb business this weekend. James Wan’s movies have an average opening of $10.9 million. Supernatural horror movies open at an average $15.26 million, but 2013 horror movies have been outstanding in their opening weekend performances. “Mama” opened to $28.4 million back in January, and “The Purge” opened to $34 million last month. Those movies opened to little to no competition. (“Mama” was up against “Broken City” and “The Last Stand”, two under-performing movies; while “The Purge” was up against the modestly-performing “The Internship”.) This movie opens on a busy weekend, but it is heavily anticipated and it has critics raving. Also, since “The Purge” had such poor word-of-mouth, it plummeted from $16.7 million on the Friday to $10.4 million on the Saturday, a day where movies usually earn more than the Friday. Anyway, horror fanatics haven’t received a horror movie since “The Purge” in June, and they haven’t received a good horror movie since April’s “Evil Dead”. Since it is anticipated, has star power (Vera Farmiga, Patrick Wilson), and since it looks great, I’m going to go high with my prediction. I also think this will have phenomenal word-of-mouth, so this will go strong all weekend. I’m predicting $37.5 million for its opening.

“Red 2” is the sequel to 2010’s action comedy hit. It brings back the cast and this one looks really fun. I haven’t seen the first movie, so I’ll be watching the first one sometime this week. The first “Red” opened to $21.76 million back in October 2010, against “Jackass 3-D”, that opened to $50.3 million. “Red” has a good following, though, as it has a standing 7.0 IMDb score based on over 140, 000 user ratings. It is also the tenth-best selling DVD of 2011 (sandwiched between “Transformers: Dark of the Moon” and “Despicable Me”). The movie has a great cast including Bruce Willis, Helen Mirren, Anthony Hopkins and Mary-Louise Parker (who is also starring in “R.I.P.D.”).With this film’s good following, I think this sequel will beat its predecessor in its opening weekend number by a decent-sized margin; so for the three-day weekend, I’m predicting this at $25 million.

“Turbo” is DreamWorks’ latest production, and I think it’ll do well, as family audiences aren’t yet tired of animated movies. They have emptied their pockets on “Monsters University” and those little yellow minions are still dominating the market, so this could very well suffer from competition of those animated movies, and the other new releases. And families just could wait for “The Smurfs 2”. This seems like DreamWorks’ answer to “Cars” and “Ratatouille” in the way that it’s an underdog story. Kids like racing movies, but are they willing to see a racing movie that has a snail going for gold? Of course, Pixar was able to make a rat appealing in “Ratatouille”, but DreamWorks isn’t nearly as respected as Pixar. (But then again, which animated studio is?) And “Epic” had a snail and a slug as supporting characters, but they were there for comic relief, mostly. Anyway, with a decent-looking underdog story and a good voice cast (Ryan Reynolds, Samuel L. Jackson, Ken Jeong), this should do decent business on a busy weekend. For the three-day, I’ll predict $28.8 million; and for the five-day (Wed-Sun), I’m predicting $43 million.

Now that I’ve discussed all the ones I think will do well, this is the one I don’t have a lot of faith in. “R.I.P.D.” looks like fun, but it’s the least appealing out of all of the new releases. The 3D action comedy is adapted from a comic book of the same name, but I don’t see it doing well. Audiences haven’t been showing a lot of enthusiasm for it yet, but I think it’ll still attract a small audience somewhere in the low-teen millions. People like Jeff Bridges and Ryan Reynolds (who’s going to have a busy weekend), but I don’t know if this is on many people’s radars. I think it could do decent business, but it’s going to suffer because of all of the competition. And older action fans will probably just see “Red 2” instead. It’ll break $10 million, I think, but I don’t think it’ll go past the $15 million mark. I’m going to underestimate Bridges and Reynolds’ combined popularity and say an awful $12.8 million.

Here’s how I see the Top 10:
1. The Conjuring: $37, 500, 000
2. Turbo: $28, 800, 000 (5-day: $43M)
3. Red 2: $25, 000, 000
4. Despicable Me 2: $22, 473, 000
5. Pacific Rim: $19, 825, 000
6. Grown Ups 2: $19, 500, 000
7. R.I.P.D.: $12, 800, 000
8. The Heat: $9, 025, 000
9. Monsters University: $6, 000, 000
10. The Lone Ranger: $5, 800, 000

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‘Hansel and Gretel’ Comes Out on Top (Jan. 25-27)

Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters came out on top with $19.69 million, and Mama drops 53.9% to $13.088 million this weekend. Parker made $7 million, while Movie 43 proves to be the worst reviewed film of the year so far, and the largest box office bomb with a measly $4.8 million.

Click the title for my review.

Top 10 Box Office, The Results (Estimates)

My Prediction/Off by (+/)

1. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters: $19, 690, 956

– $19, 000, 000$690, 956 Under

2. Mama: $13, 088, 145

– $16, 900, 000$3, 811, 855 Over

3. Zero Dark Thirty: $9, 700, 132

– $9, 500, 000$200, 132 Over

4. Silver Linings Playbook: $9, 444, 039

– $7, 300, 000$2, 144, 039 Under

5. Parker: $7, 008, 222

– $9, 400, 000$2, 391, 778 Over

6. Django Unchained: $4, 946, 932

– $5, 000, 000$53, 068 Over

7. Movie 43: $4, 805, 878

– $12, 500, 000$7, 694, 122 Over

8. Gangster Squad: $4, 278, 235

– $4, 000, 000$278, 235 Under

9. Les Misérables: $4, 221, 055

– $4, 800, 000$578, 945 Over

10. Broken City: $4, 019, 558

– $4, 000, 000$19, 558 Over

New releases total difference: $10, 776, 856.

Holdovers total difference: $7, 085, 832.

 

 

January 25-27 Box Office Predictions

The new releases

Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters

Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters

Parker

Parker

Movie 43

Movie 43

 

 

 

 

 

There are three releases coming out this weekend: an action-comedy cross-over, Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters; a crude comedy, Movie 43 and; a new Statham vehicle, Parker.

The most intriguing, to me, is Hansel and Gretel. I love a good twist on a classic tale, and Will Ferrell and Adam McKay on as producers catches my attention even more. The story follows the titular pair of the classic fairy tale, but this time they’re bounty hunters who hunt witches all over the world. They are also now facing a new form of evil.

One of the most recent classic twists on a fairy tale, Red Riding Hood, made $14 million in its opening weekend. Though, this one is in 3D and it has the popularity of Jeremy Renner going for it. I also hope it’ll be a bigger hit than R.R.H. I think this will gross $19 million this weekend.

Movie 43 seems like a new New Year’s Eve for the crude comedy genre, and for the modern internet age. The story: A series of interconnected short films follows three kids as they search the depths of the Internet to find the world’s most banned movie. It has a bunch of different directors and practically everyone in it, so it has that going for it… It also looks incredibly stupid. New Year’s Eve grossed $13 million in its opening weekend, and Valentine’s Day grossed $56.26 million in its opening weekend, but I highly doubt this will get an opening weekend return anywhere near Valentine’s number. I think it will gross a little less than New Year’s Eve number. With better execution than 2012’s V/H/S (a film that also used short films as a major contribution), this could turn out to be a hit. This will still earn a nice profit in its opening weekend because of its solid marketing campaign and buzz on thee ole Twitter-sphere. I think this will gross $12.5 million this weekend.

Statham’s most recent action vehicle, Parker, teams him up with Jennifer Lopez. The story: A thief with a unique code of professional ethics is double-crossed by his crew and left for dead. Assuming a new disguise and forming an unlikely alliance with a woman on the inside, he looks to hijack the score of the crew’s latest heist. For 2013, the gross for the one action flick with a primary action hero isn’t too promising (Arnie’s The Last Stand, grossing $6.28 in its opening weekend). Statham has an average opening weekend gross of $12.19 million. Whilst that’s more than decent, my interest for Statham has been wavering as of late. His last two leading man action flicks haven’t produced great returns – Killer Elite: total gross of $25 million (with $9.35 in its opening weekend) and; Safe: total gross of $17.14 million (with $7.89 in its opening weekend). This time, though, he’s being paired with Jennifer Lopez, and the film could be a winner. We’ll see what happens, but I think it’ll make $9.4 million this weekend.

Here’s how I see the top 10:

Title/Prediction/Studio

1. Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters/ $19, 000, 000/ Paramount
2. Mama/ $16, 900, 000/ Universal
3. Movie 43/ $12, 500, 000/ Relativity
4. Zero Dark Thirty/ $9, 500, 000/ Sony
5. Parker/ $9, 400, 000/ FilmDistrict
6. Silver Linings Playbook/ $7, 300, 000/ Weinstein Company
7. Django Unchained/ $5, 000, 000/ Weinstein Company
8. Les Misérables/ $4, 800, 000/ Universal
9. Broken City/ $4, 300, 000/ Fox
10. Gangster Squad/ $4, 000, 000/ Warner Bros.