August 9-11 Box Office Results

“Elysium” had the strongest debut so far this month, and it will probably have the highest debut throughout August. However, its $29.8 million debut is a little disappointing; considering “District 9” had a $37.3 million debut back in August 2009 with no star power. It was the best release of the weekend critically, with a 65% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. However, it only had a ‘B’ Cinemascore, so that’s also a little disappointing.

“We’re the Millers” had a surprisingly good debut in second place with $26.4 million. It received an ‘A-‘ Cinemascore, and it should hold well throughout its run – with no pure comedies coming out until August 23rd’s “The World’s End.”

“Planes” received an ‘A-‘ Cinemascore on a $22.2 million debut. It was enough to earn it third place, but not enough for me to see it. There’s already a sequel on its way, so that kind-of sucks. “Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters” had a middling $14.4 million, but it earned $23.25 million in its first five days.

With four releases coming out this weekend, it seems as if “We’re the Millers” will have the best holdover. Here’s how the Top 10 performed:

Title: Prediction/Result/Difference

1. Elysium: $38.4m/$29.807m/$8.593m over
2. We’re the Millers (5-day): $28.6m/$37.908m/$9.308m over
3. Planes: $20.25m/$22.232m/$1.982 over
4. Percy Jackson 2 (5-day): $26.9m/$23.258/$3.642m over
5. 2 Guns: $15.15m/$11.249m/$3.901m over
6. The Smurfs: $9.32m/$9, 328, 495/$8,495 under
7. The Wolverine: $12.11m/$8.024m/$4.086m over
8. The Conjuring: $8.08m/$6.627m/$1.453m over
9. Despicable Me 2: $6.7m/$5.915m/$785, 000 over
10. Grown Ups 2: $5.15m/$3.645m/$1.505m over

For the four (4) new releases, I was off by $23.525 million.
For the six (6) holdovers, I was off by $11, 738, 495.

August 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Third most-anticipated: "Elysium"“Elysium” looks great, and it looks like it could be the best sci-fi of the year yet. Okay, I’ll try to keep my expectations lower than that, because it’s been quite a year for sci-fi. Neill Blomkamp’s first movie “District 9” impressed, especially with its $37.35 million opening. This has been eagerly anticipated, with its star power (Matt Damon, Jodie Foster) and an intriguing story. Thanks to the buzz, I think this will gross more (just by a bit) than “District 9.” And if it doesn’t, it might as well be guaranteed that it grosses closer to “Oblivion” ($37.05m) than “After Earth” ($27.52m). I’m doubt this will be anything less than high 30’s. My prediction is $38.4 million.

We're the Millers“We’re the Millers” looks funny. It looks like an amusing road trip comedy, where the character Sudeikis plays has to bring a huge shipment of marijuana across the Mexican border back to the U.S., and he hires a stripper (Jennifer Aniston), a runaway (Emma Roberts) and a virgin (Will Poulter) to act as his family. The marketing campaign for this has been light, but I’ve been intrigued by it ever since I saw the red band trailer before “The Hangover Part III.” I like the premise. I don’t think this will gross more than “Identity Thief’s” three-day $34.55 million total, in its five days. Movies similar to this gross $19.19 million. Since the marketing has been light, I think this will manage a $28.6 million five-day, and a $21.6 million three-day.

PlanesI don’t like the fact that “Planes” exists. It should have just taken the straight-to-video route.”Cars” was a hard enough sell on me (I still have yet to see it), so there’s no way I’ll be seeing this one. Movies similar to “Planes” open to an average $34.82 million. I guess this is part of an established brand, but it’s just an ole spin-off, “above the world of Cars”. I think this will do better than “The Smurfs 2,” even if the market is really busy for family-friendly fare; because “The Smurfs 2” was already hated by adults before it even came to theatres, and families might give this one more of a fair chance. However, since families have already spent so much money this summer, I’m going to go low and say $20 million.

Percy Jackson 2The “Percy Jackson” franchise seems destined for mediocrity. (I watched the first one, so I’ll post my review soon.) The first scored a worldwide gross of $226 million on a $95 million budget. Though, I doubt “Sea of Monsters” will gross more in its debuting five-day frame than the first one did in its first three days (a $31.236 million tally). And that wasn’t up against much direct competition: “Avatar” ($23.61m) in its ninth week, “Dear John” ($16m) in its second week, the R-rated horror “The Wolfman” ($31.47m) in its first weekend, and the lame rom-com “Valentine’s Day” ($56.26m) in its first weekend. This movie is going up against an already competitive family-friendly market: “Turbo,” “Grown Ups 2,” “Despicable Me 2,” “The Smurfs 2,” and fellow newcomer, “Planes.” Films similar to this open at an average $47.12 million. I think this will gross $26.9 million in its five-day, and I’ll say $19m for the three-day frame.

As for the holdovers, it’ll be interesting to see how the two new family-friendly films affects the already disappointing performance by “The Smurfs 2.” I think the two new releases will be the nail in “Turbo’s” coffin. I also wonder how “We’re the Millers” will affect the performance of “Grown Ups 2″… I guess we’ll see by the end of the weekend. This seems like it’ll be a much busier weekend than last.

Here’s how I see the Top 10:

1. “Elysium”: $38.4m
2. “We’re the Millers”: $21.6m (Five-day: $28.6m)
3. “Planes”: $20.25m
4. “Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters”: $19m (Five-day: $26.9m)
5. “2 Guns”: $15.15m
6. “The Wolverine”: $12.11m
7. “The Smurfs 2”: $9.32m
8. “The Conjuring”: $8.08m
9. “Despicable Me 2“: $6.7m
10. “Grown Ups 2“: $5.15m

August 2-4 Box Office Predictions

The Smurfs 2“The Smurfs 2” is being released two days early to beat the rush. Now, that worked wonders for “Despicable Me 2,” but didn’t do anything for “Turbo.” After families have emptied their pockets out on legitimately good animated movies like “Monsters University” and “DM2,” their budgets for movies are running on empty (as shown by the soft first weekend for “Turbo”). (That’s okay by me — because this and the summer’s last animated movie, “Planes,” don’t peak my interest.) Movies similar to “The Smurfs 2” open to an average $25.96 million. 2011’s “The Smurfs” opened to $35.6 million. Two years between the original and the first sequel isn’t so bad. Families might have grown a bit wiser in that time – though. For the three-day weekend, I’ll predict this at $26.5 million; and for the five-day frame, I’ll predict it at $39.34 million.

2 Guns

“2 Guns” is the other major release this weekend. It’s an action comedy starring Denzel Washington and Mark Wahlberg, so it already has an appeal with the cast. The last major buddy comedy, “The Heat,” was aimed at women; so now it’s time to show that men still like their action comedies. This still has an appeal to women, as well, because buddy comedies usually do well. “The Heat” had an $39.115 million debut, so this actioner should open roughly in the same neighbourhood, maybe a bit lower since this film’s marketing campaign wasn’t as aggressive as the campaign of “The Heat.” And since “The Wolverine” will have a good holdover, my prediction is $33.8 million.

Title: Prediction
1. “2 Guns”: $33.8 million
2. “The Wolverine”: $27.15 million
3. “The Smurfs 2”: $26.5 million (Five-day: $39.34 million)
4. “The Conjuring”: $12.85 million
5. “Despicable Me 2“: $10.1 million
6. “Turbo”: $8.56 million
7. “Grown Ups 2“: $6.96 million
8. “Red 2”: $5.26 million
9. “The Heat“: $4.844 million
10. “Pacific Rim“: $4.035 million

Box Office Results July 26-28. (I can’t think of a clever title.)

The Wolverine“The Wolverine” did good business this weekend, but not nearly as great as everyone thought it would be. While it was tracking for a $70 million opening, it was only able to nab a $53.114 million opening. This opening should be attributed to the fact that the disappointing “X-Men Origins: Wolverine” disappointed many, so it kept some people away, and audiences are probably just fatigued of this superhero craze and all the explosions. (That makes me question how well “Kick-Ass 2” might do?) Since “Wolverine” did receive an ‘A-‘ Cinemascore, that should say it’ll have good legs. More good news: It’s already earned back its $120-million budget with its $139.2M worldwide tally.

As for the holdovers, “The Conjuring” continues to scare everyone as it had a drop of -46.9% to $22.2 million. That is a great hold for a horror film, where they traditionally face drops over 50%. (“The Purge” faced a drop of 76%!) “Turbo” also held well, dropping 35.5% to $13.74 million. Its box office performance will be thrown off pace when “The Smurfs 2” gets released on Wednesday, and it will be killed by the competition of “Planes”, come August 9th. It’s a very competitive market for animated movies, as “Despicable Me 2” is still going strong with a weekend gross of $16.4 million. “Grown Ups 2” was also in the Top 5 this weekend with $11.6 million, and it’s the 14th Adam Sandler movie to gross over $100 million. That isn’t exactly music to my ears, since I have such a low opinion of “GU2.”

“Fruitvale Station” found its way into the Top 10 with $4.59 million this weekend. “The Way, Way Back” earned $3.44 million and Woody Allen’s “Blue Jasmine” made $612, 064 at just six theatres, marking a career best Per Theatre Average for Woody Allen, and the best PTA of the year so far. Finally, “The To-Do List” grossed a miniature $1.58 million at 591 theatres, which is surprising considering I’ve basically seen the trailer before every comedy I’ve seen for the past month.

What did you all see this weekend? I didn’t get out to the theatre (well, I did last Thursday to see “White House Down”) this weekend, but I’m planning to see “The Way, Way Back” and “Much Ado About Nothing” this week. Maybe “2 Guns” on the weekend. I won’t be seeing “The Smurfs 2.” I just couldn’t take it. I’ll see what happens. I’m thinking of going through a comedian’s full filmography throughout the first half of August and posting the reviews throughout the second half. I’ll make an announcement post soon, but in the meantime, you’ll have to wonder who the comedian is. (Note: Half of their filmography is torture, and half of it I like. So I’m watching half of the comedian’s filmography for your entertainment, and half of it for mine.) Anyway, here’s how much I was off by for each movie in the Top 10:

Title: Result/Prediction/Difference

1. The Wolverine: $53.114M/$69.825M/$16.711M over
2. The Conjuring: $22.208M/$24.258M/$2.05M over
3. Despicable Me 2: $16.424M/$16.2M/$224, 000 under
4. Turbo: $13.74M/$13.5M/$240, 000 under
5. Grown Ups 2: $11.6M/$10M/$1.6M under
6. Red 2: $9.337M/$12.5M/$3.163M over
7. Pacific Rim: $7.703M/$7.8M/$97, 000 over
8. The Heat: $6.915M/$5.6M/$1.315M under
9. R.I.P.D.: $6.071M/5.5M/$571, 000 under
10. Fruitvale Station: $4.59M/$5.2M/$610, 000 over

For the one new release, I was off by $16.711 million.
For the nine holdovers, I was off by $9.87 million.

Remember to get your predictions in at Box Office Ace! You can get your prediction in for 2 Guns here, and your prediction for The Smurfs 2 here.

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