May 16-18 Box Office Predictions: ‘Star Trek Into Darkness’

J.J. Abrams returns to the directing chair for the hotly anticipated sequel to 2009’s Star Trek. Star Trek stands at an excellent 8.0 rating on IMDb, and has a seat in the IMDb Top 250 at #224. The movie has  a solid fan base and since four years is more than enough time to generate a lot of anticipation, I predict this will earn $108, 330, 000 for the four-day haul (Thursday through Sunday).

1. Star Trek Into Darkness: $108, 330, 000
2. Iron Man 3: $33, 870, 000
3. The Great Gatsby: $23, 200, 000
4. Pain and Gain: $3, 160, 000
5. 42: $3, 135, 000
6. The Croods: $2, 900, 000
7. Oblivion: $2, 850, 000
8. Peeples: $2, 210, 000
9. Mud: $2, 098, 000
10. The Big Wedding: $1, 500, 000

May 10-12 Box Office Predictions: ‘The Great Gatsby’ and ‘Peeples’

History isn’t on The Great Gatsby‘s side. For whatever reason, Warner Bros. shows the preference to release summer movies on the second weekend, where they can either flop or prosper, based on the reception of the movie that starts the summer. They can either do decent business (Dark Shadows opened to $29.68 million against The Avengers; and Robin Hood opened to $36.06 million against Iron Man 2), or they could really prosper (Star Trek opened to $75.2 million against X-Men Origins: Wolverine). I think Gatsby will perform well, even if history isn’t on its side. This gives movie-goers a unique choice other than super-hero movies and movies with lots of explosions. I’m not sure if a lot of the younger demographic will come and see this, because many may have read it in high school and hated it, but they also could have loved it. The main appeal for the young’ns, I think, is Leo DiCaprio.  DiCaprio’s movies have an average opening of $22.28M, and the rest of the cast includes Tobey Maguire, Carey Mulligan, Isla Fisher and Joel Edgerton; and it is directed by a man of style, Baz Luhrmann. The 3D might also help the movie make a little extra money. Similar movies open to an average $23.14 million. This hardly stands a chance at beating Iron Man 3 this weekend, but I expect a healthy opening between Robin Hood‘s $36.06M opening and Shutter Island’s $41.06M, so I’ll go with $39, 198, 750.

The other movie coming out this weekend is Tyler Perry Presents Peeples, a movie starring Craig Robinson and Kerry Washington. It had an extremely light advertising campaign. It looks like it could turn out to be a decent film, that makes me think of Meet the Parents and every black comedy that’s set at a family reunion. It’s up against Gatsby and that Iron Man 3 holdover, but I think this could comfortably take third place for the weekend. There’s always a decent market for this types of movies, so I think it really has the ability to score in the low teen millions. Movies similar to this open to $19.02 million, but this really won’t go that high. Temptation opened well to $21.6 million, but a similar low-grossing comedy that opened the other week, The Big Wedding, only managed a bad $7.59 million opening. I won’t underestimate the power of the Perry this time around, but since the last two wedding/marriage themed movies haven’t performed well (The Five-Year Engagement opened to $10.61 million), I’ll only predict it at $13, 835, 000 million.

Here’s how I see the top 10:
1. Iron Man 3: $73, 840, 000
2. The Great Gatsby: $39, 198, 750
3. Peeples: $13, 835, 000
4. Pain and Gain: $3, 825, 000
5. 42: $3, 294, 000
6. The Croods: $3, 202, 000
7. Oblivion: $2, 650, 000
8. Mud: $2, 185, 000
9. The Big Wedding: $2, 000, 000
10. Oz The Great and Powerful: $1, 885, 000

May 3-5 Box Office Results

Iron Man 3 now has the second highest opening weekend of all-time, with a $174.1 million opening. Bring on the summer season!

Title: Result Prediction Difference (Over/Under)
1. Iron Man 3: $174,144,585 $166.016M $8, 128, 585 under
2. Pain and Gain: $7,511,315 — $9, 595, 900 — $2, 084, 585 over
3. 42: $6,055,327 — $6, 219, 950 — $164, 623 over
4. Oblivion: $5,642,335 — $8, 259, 800 — $2, 617, 465 over
5. The Croods: $4,202,639 — $4, 670, 500 — $467, 861 over
6. The Big Wedding: $3,881,857 — $4, 360, 210 — $478, 353 over
7. Mud: $2,160,319 — $2.3M — $139, 681 over
9. Scary Movie 5: $1,441,360 — $1, 770, 305 — $328, 945 over
11. G.I. Joe: Retaliation: $1,270,094 $2.2M $929, 906 over
12. Olympus Has Fallen: $1,194,650 $1.74M  $545, 350 over

Total difference for one new release: $8, 128, 585
Total difference for nine (9) holdovers: $7, 756, 769

May 3-5 Box Office Predictions: ‘Iron Man 3’

Iron Man 3Movies similar to Iron Man 3 open to an average $87.72 million. The first Iron Man opened to $98.62 million while the second opened to $128.12 million. The Marvel franchise has an established fan base, and this movie’s going to have one of the best opening weekends ever. The popularity of The Avengers has helped gain the Iron Man movies more fans, and this is the first Avenger-member super hero movie since the release of The Avengers, this same weekend last year. While this doesn’t stand much of a chance at matching The Avengers‘ record-shattering $207, 438, 708 opening, nor am I imagining it topping the number two opening weekend record of $169, 189, 427 held down by the eighth Harry Potter movie. Though, because of the franchise’s increased fan base thanks to The Avengers, and the fact that the excellent Ben Kingsley might attract older audiences, I can really visualize this topping The Dark Knight Rises‘ $160, 887, 295 (the third opening weekend all-time record) and finishing the weekend with $166, 016, 000.

Here’s how I see the top 10:

1. Iron Man 3: $166, 016, 000
2. Pain & Gain: $9, 595, 900
3. Oblivion: $8, 259, 800
4. 42: $6, 219, 950
5. The Croods: $4, 670, 500
6. The Big Wedding: $4, 360, 210
7. Mud: $2, 300, 000
8. G.I. Joe: Retaliation: $2, 200, 000
9. Scary Movie 51, 770, 305
10. Olympus Has Fallen: $1, 740, 000

April 26-28 Box Office Predictions: ‘Pain & Gain’ vs. ‘The Big Wedding’

Pain & Gain

Pain & Gain vs.

 

The Big Wedding

The Big Wedding

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Big Wedding looks like a lame romantic comedy. It could be funny, but it looks as if it has flop scribbled on it. It’s a big ensemble including Robert De Niro, Diane Keaton, Susan Sarandon, Katherine Heigl, Amanda Seyfried, Robin Williams, Ben Barnes and Topher Grace. I guess it’s better than just another Katherine Heigl movie. It just happens to have her in it. The story follows a long-divorced couple (De Niro and Keaton) fakes being married as their family unites for a wedding. It looks like it could turn out to be better than expected, but I’m not so sure. It just seems like one big debacle, and not even a charming one like While You Were Sleeping. The romantic comedy genre averages a $10.37 million opening. Movies similar to this have an average opening of $19.55 million, but this won’t come close to that. This looks like it’s a similar formula to Valentine’s Day or New Year’s Eve because of its ensemble. Moviegoers are also getting smarter. Since Valentine’s Day was so bad, the sort-of sequel New Year’s Eve only earned $13.02 million in its opening weekend and grossed a total of $54.54 million, while Valentine’s Day grossed $56.26 million in its opening weekend. There just doesn’t seem to be a very large audience for these extremely familiar romantic comedies. But it is nice to see movies targeted at baby boomers. I expect an opening around R-rated The Five-Year Engagement‘s $10.61 million opening. It could do good business between You Again‘s $8.4 million opening and The Family Stone‘s $12.5 million. I expect an opening at $10.7 million.

Pain & Gain looks awesomely entertaining. I wouldn’t call it one of my most anticipated movies of the year, but I’m hoping it will be good. Mark Walhberg’s opening weekend average is $21.28 million; The Rock’s, $27.17 million; Ed Harris’, $13.52 million; and Anthony Mackie’s is $14.21 million. Michael Bay directs a ton of popcorn movies, and the trend seems to continue – even though this does look entertaining and very unique. The writing team of Christopher Markus and Stephen Feely are writing veterans of the Narnia franchise, and they are now Marvel writers (they wrote the first Captain America, and they’re writing Thor: The Dark World and Captain America: The Winter Soldier. With a unique writer(s) and director team and a sweet ensemble cast, this could be a big surprise. Movies similar to this open at an average $19.46 million, and I can see this opening around Contraband‘s $23.4 million. My prediction is $24.8 million.

Here’s how I see the top 10: 

1. Pain & Gain: $24, 800, 000
2. Oblivion: $18, 058, 000
3. 42: $11, 322, 000
4. The Big Wedding: $10, 700, 000
5. The Croods: $6, 300, 000
6. G.I. Joe: Retaliation: $3, 600, 000
7. The Place Beyond the Pines: $3, 350, 000
8. Scary Movie 5: $3, 016, 000
9. Olympus Has Fallen: $2, 600, 000
10. Evil Dead: $1, 698, 000