Box Office Predictions: July 19-21

There are four big releases coming out this weekend, so I’ll try to keep my thoughts on each of the movies brief, so this article doesn’t become too tedious. The movies are “The Conjuring”, “Red 2”, “R.I.P.D.” and “Turbo”.

“The Conjuring” will do superb business this weekend. James Wan’s movies have an average opening of $10.9 million. Supernatural horror movies open at an average $15.26 million, but 2013 horror movies have been outstanding in their opening weekend performances. “Mama” opened to $28.4 million back in January, and “The Purge” opened to $34 million last month. Those movies opened to little to no competition. (“Mama” was up against “Broken City” and “The Last Stand”, two under-performing movies; while “The Purge” was up against the modestly-performing “The Internship”.) This movie opens on a busy weekend, but it is heavily anticipated and it has critics raving. Also, since “The Purge” had such poor word-of-mouth, it plummeted from $16.7 million on the Friday to $10.4 million on the Saturday, a day where movies usually earn more than the Friday. Anyway, horror fanatics haven’t received a horror movie since “The Purge” in June, and they haven’t received a good horror movie since April’s “Evil Dead”. Since it is anticipated, has star power (Vera Farmiga, Patrick Wilson), and since it looks great, I’m going to go high with my prediction. I also think this will have phenomenal word-of-mouth, so this will go strong all weekend. I’m predicting $37.5 million for its opening.

“Red 2” is the sequel to 2010’s action comedy hit. It brings back the cast and this one looks really fun. I haven’t seen the first movie, so I’ll be watching the first one sometime this week. The first “Red” opened to $21.76 million back in October 2010, against “Jackass 3-D”, that opened to $50.3 million. “Red” has a good following, though, as it has a standing 7.0 IMDb score based on over 140, 000 user ratings. It is also the tenth-best selling DVD of 2011 (sandwiched between “Transformers: Dark of the Moon” and “Despicable Me”). The movie has a great cast including Bruce Willis, Helen Mirren, Anthony Hopkins and Mary-Louise Parker (who is also starring in “R.I.P.D.”).With this film’s good following, I think this sequel will beat its predecessor in its opening weekend number by a decent-sized margin; so for the three-day weekend, I’m predicting this at $25 million.

“Turbo” is DreamWorks’ latest production, and I think it’ll do well, as family audiences aren’t yet tired of animated movies. They have emptied their pockets on “Monsters University” and those little yellow minions are still dominating the market, so this could very well suffer from competition of those animated movies, and the other new releases. And families just could wait for “The Smurfs 2”. This seems like DreamWorks’ answer to “Cars” and “Ratatouille” in the way that it’s an underdog story. Kids like racing movies, but are they willing to see a racing movie that has a snail going for gold? Of course, Pixar was able to make a rat appealing in “Ratatouille”, but DreamWorks isn’t nearly as respected as Pixar. (But then again, which animated studio is?) And “Epic” had a snail and a slug as supporting characters, but they were there for comic relief, mostly. Anyway, with a decent-looking underdog story and a good voice cast (Ryan Reynolds, Samuel L. Jackson, Ken Jeong), this should do decent business on a busy weekend. For the three-day, I’ll predict $28.8 million; and for the five-day (Wed-Sun), I’m predicting $43 million.

Now that I’ve discussed all the ones I think will do well, this is the one I don’t have a lot of faith in. “R.I.P.D.” looks like fun, but it’s the least appealing out of all of the new releases. The 3D action comedy is adapted from a comic book of the same name, but I don’t see it doing well. Audiences haven’t been showing a lot of enthusiasm for it yet, but I think it’ll still attract a small audience somewhere in the low-teen millions. People like Jeff Bridges and Ryan Reynolds (who’s going to have a busy weekend), but I don’t know if this is on many people’s radars. I think it could do decent business, but it’s going to suffer because of all of the competition. And older action fans will probably just see “Red 2” instead. It’ll break $10 million, I think, but I don’t think it’ll go past the $15 million mark. I’m going to underestimate Bridges and Reynolds’ combined popularity and say an awful $12.8 million.

Here’s how I see the Top 10:
1. The Conjuring: $37, 500, 000
2. Turbo: $28, 800, 000 (5-day: $43M)
3. Red 2: $25, 000, 000
4. Despicable Me 2: $22, 473, 000
5. Pacific Rim: $19, 825, 000
6. Grown Ups 2: $19, 500, 000
7. R.I.P.D.: $12, 800, 000
8. The Heat: $9, 025, 000
9. Monsters University: $6, 000, 000
10. The Lone Ranger: $5, 800, 000

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Recap of June’s Theatrical Releases

I saw six out of the nine major theatrical releases of June. I still plan on seeing the following from the month of June, in alphabetical order: “Berberian Sound Studio”, “The Bling Ring”, “Byzantium”, “The Internship”, “Maniac”, “Much Ado About Nothing”, “Song for Marion”, “Syrup” (because I love Brittany Snow), “Violet & Daisy”, White House Down”. Considering that the lowest score of June’s new releases was 50 out of 100 (surprisingly “awarded” to “Man of Steel”), it was hardly a bad month for movies. Here’s the ranking of the June’s releases from best to worst, with a blurb from each of my reviews.

This is the End (6/12)

This is the End (6/12) [My review]

“This is an insanely funny movie. Ridiculous, yes, but a sure blast if there ever was one. It’s all good old-fashioned, self-aware bliss. This just shows that a comedy about hanging out with one’s best buds could be a real gem to the genre. Adam Sandler could take quite a few pointers from this comedy.” 91/100. This was my fourth most anticipated movie of June, and it exceeded expectations, and it’s currently my favourite movie of the year thus far. 

IMDb Score: 7.9/10Rotten Tomatoes Critics: 7/10RT Audience: 8/10.

Monsters University (6/21)

Monsters University (6/21) [My review]

“I will always cherish this fantastic film. I will always watch this with a big smile on my face. This is an impressive prequel to “Monsters, Inc.”, and an impressive Pixar movie.” 90/100. This was my most anticipated movie of June, and it truly satisfied.

IMDb Score: 7.8/10RTC: 6.7/10; RTA: 8.4/10.

World War Z (6/21)

World War Z (6/21) [My review]

“The story’s a good one, as far as ‘find the cure’ movies go. Since I have not read the book, I cannot comment on any similarities or big differences. All I can say is, it’s a story that plays well on the screen. I like that Drew Goddard has a hand in the screenplay; because he has talent. It’s a traditional, but very enjoyable ‘find the cure’ type of film.” 75/100. This was my tenth most anticipated movie of June, so it really impressed. 

IMDb Score: 7.3/10RTC: 6.2/10RTA: 7.6/10.

The Heat (6/28)

The Heat (6/28) [My review]

“The humour is raunchy as hell, but usually funny as hell. When I wasn’t laughing at the jokes, I was at least smirking a little. When it isn’t being hilarious, the likeable chemistry between Bullock and McCarthy really carries it along. The movie balances out to a fun, predictable, but hysterical time at the movies.” 75/100. This was my seventh most anticipated movie of June, so it did satisfy. 

IMDb Score: 7.1/10RTC: 6.0/10; RTA: 8.0/10.

The Purge (6/7)

The Purge (6/7) [My review]

“The concept helps make this movie memorable. However, this rushed home invasion flick/intriguing social commentary ends up being incredibly average. It’s disappointing, and while it has some worthwhile menacing villains, it’s the latest movie to the Great Concept, Poor Execution category.” 57/100. This was my third most anticipated movie of June, so it was truly disappointing.

IMDb Score: 5.6/10; RTC: 5.1/10; RTA: 6.0/10.

Man of Steel (6/14)

Man of Steel (6/14) [My review]

“I do not appreciate the constant changes in tone throughout the feature. It goes from big, stupid action to character-driven drama that feels real. It becomes bothersome quickly, and it does not make for effective storytelling.” 50/100. This was my second most anticipated movie of June, so it was a big let-down.

IMDb Score: 7.8/10; RTC: 6.3/10RTA: 8.0.

Here are some statistics: 

IMDb Ranking: 1. “This is the End” (7.9), 2. “Man of Steel” (7.8), 2. “Monsters University” (7.8), 4. “World War Z” (7.3), 5. “The Heat” (7.1), 6. “The Purge” (5.6). Average score: 7.25/10. 

RT Critics Ranking: 1. “This is the End” (7.0), 2. “Monsters University” (6.7), 3. “Man of Steel” (6.3), 4. “World War Z” (6.2), 5. “The Heat” (6.0), “The Purge” (5.1). Average score: 6.21/10. 

RT Audience Ranking: 1. “Monsters University” (8.4), 2. “The Heat” (8.0), 2. “Man of Steel” (8.0), 2. “This is the End” (8.0), 5. “World War Z” (7.6), 6. “The Purge” (6.0). Average score: 7.66/10.

My Average score: 73/100. (Adjusted [excluding lowest grade]: 77.6/100.)

What movies did you enjoy out of June’s releases, and which ones did you hate? There were a total six votes in my Most Anticipated Movies of June poll (4 to “Man of Steel”, 1 to “This is the End”, and 1 to “Monsters University”, which was my vote). Did your most anticipated movie satisfy or disappoint the hell out of you? Let me know in the comments!

Also: I’ll be posting my Best of the Year So Far article sometime this weekend or early next week. Stay tuned! 

 

Box Office Predictions: ‘The Heat’, ‘White House Down’

 

The HeatComedy movies have performing fairly well so far this year. A few bombed (Movie 43), a few opened to expectations (This is the End), and a few impressed (Identity Thief). Now, it’s time to see how the Sandra Bullock/Melissa McCarthy buddy comedy will perform. I think it will out-do Identity Thief, but not by a huge amount. It seems extremely vulgar, but funny. This is going up against White House Down and the competition of World War Z, and Monsters University in their second weekends. This and WHD are in a real battle of the sexes. I’m looking forward to seeing this, and movies similar to this open to an average $24.68 million. Melissa McCarthy is pretty popular, as well. I’m indifferent about her; I like on her on TV’s Mike and Molly, but I’m not a huge fan of the kind-of role she plays in Bridesmaids: dirty and vulgar. I don’t hate that role, because it’s good once or twice, but I think it’s going to become tiring very quickly. I think the role could be gold, however, matched up with Sandra Bullock. And director Paul Fieg. I think this could find some great success this weekend, mostly because there aren’t many other films targeting females in the market right now (and so many are for men), so I’m predicting it at $41.9 million.

White House DownWhite House Down looks pretty good, but it’s as if we’ve already seen it earlier this year with Olympus Has Fallen. That movie earned $30.37 million in its opening weekend, so this really should gross more than that surprise hit, with bigger stars and director. I also think the advertising campaign is kind-of brilliant, in the way that they only portray the villain as a familiar voice. I think it really adds to the mystery of it all. Movies similar to this open to $31.25 million. Channing Tatum has an average opening of $22.6 million. Jamie Foxx has an average opening of $19.2 million. Roland Emmerich, the director, has an average opening of $39.15 million, which I think is the ideal ballpark for this. His movies are almost always lots of fun (even though one of his more serious pictures, Anonymous, was very boring). In this weekend’s battle of the sexes, I think this actioner will lose to The Heat and earn $40.3 million. The two movies might just be going head to head all weekend.

box office

Here’s how I see the Top 10

1. Monsters University [review]: $44, 900, 000
2. The Heat: $41, 900, 000
3. White House Down: $40, 300, 000
4. World War Z [review]: $28, 160, 000
5. Man of Steel [review]: $23, 600, 000
6. This is the End [review]: $8, 500, 000
7. Now You See Me [review]: $5, 300, 000
8. Fast & Furious 6 [review]: $3, 345, 000
9. The Purge [review]: $2, 400, 000
10. The Internship: $2, 100, 000

 

 

June 7-9 Box Office Predictions, ‘The Purge’ and ‘The Internship’

For a movie that no one really knew about this time two months ago (or so); The Purge has really broken out. Many, many Tweeters are anticipating this; so this tells me it would attract a fine audience. Horror lovers haven’t gotten a good horror release since April with Evil Dead, so I think this will top expectations and earn around $25 million (call me crazy). Home invasion horror can be fairly popular (The Strangers opened to $20.9 million), and this premise seems very promising. Movies similar to this open to $16.68 million. I think Ethan Hawke’s going to have a very good year this year, much like Matthew McConaughey had in 2012. This is his second release of the year (after Before Midnight). It has a unique star power with Ethan Hawke and Game of Thrones‘ Lena Headey. The premise is going to be the true attraction, however, and I’m going to predict this at $25 million.

I really don’t think The Internship will do as well as The Purge this weekend. According to Joe over at Two Dude Review, the movie isn’t a big, hilarious comedy like Wedding Crashers. I’ll have to take that into consideration so I won’t be too disappointed by this; I’m pretty excited for it. (Though, I might have to lower my expectations because of its 32% standing on Rotten Tomatoes.) I’m not sure if this will be as successful because of its PG-13 rating. I think these guys are way funnier in R-rated movies (even though Dodgeball‘s a very funny PG-13 comedy; as is Starsky & Hutch). Each scene for this movie was filmed for a PG-13 version, and an R-rated version. (So I’m assuming the R-rated version will be on the Blu-Ray as the Unrated Version.) Owen Wilson has an average opening of $24.69 million. Similar movies to this open at an average $22.8 million, and I think that’s the ideal neighbourhood opening for this. Vince Vaughn has an average opening weekend of $25.19 million. I’m going to predict this at $20 million.

Here’s how I see the top 10:
1. The Purge: $25, 000, 000
2. The Internship: $20, 000, 000
3. Fast & Furious 6: $17, 690, 000
4. Now You See Me: $16, 800, 000
5. After Earth: $11, 586, 000
6. Star Trek Into Darkness: $10, 425, 000
7. Epic: $10, 175, 000
8. The Hangover Part III: $8, 050, 000
9. Iron Man 3: $3, 950, 000
10. The Great Gatsby: $3, 265, 000

And these are last weekend’s results. For the two new releases, I was off by $11, 430, 349; which is pretty good considering Now You See Me over-performed and After Earth disappointed.