March 28-30 Box Office Predictions: Swear words and Sabotage of biblical proportions

box office (1)Jason Bateman’s Bad Words is one of the new releases coming out this weekend, but it’s been in limited release since the 14th of March, and has grossed $837 thousand. It premiered at TIFF back in September, and it looks pretty awesome. Since one of the taglines is “suck my dictionary,” I’m really excited. I think it looks hilarious. I don’t think this will gross a lot this weekend; but I think $6.7 million is a good enough expectation.

Noah will be the winner this weekend. I think it’s more than guaranteed it’ll gross around $30 million this weekend, and $40 million is very likely, but I think it’ll be a huge surprise hit, much like last year’s World War Z. It’s of one of the three Biblical movies this weekend; it’s the second one after Son of God, and the next one will be Exodus. This stars Russell Crowe as the titular Noah; and it also stars Jennifer Connelly, Emma Watson and Logan Lerman. It’s directed by Darren Aronofsky. I’m ecstatic to see this. The story of Noah fascinates me, and I’m excited to see a new film about it, and I love Aronofsky’s style. I’ve only seen his film Black Swan, but I’m excited to see more. Similar films open to $33.49 million. My prediction for this film is $56.5 million.

Sabotage is David Ayer’s newest film starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, Malin Akerman and Sam Worthington. I think this film looks promising. Movies similar to this open at $13.86 million. I’m curious to see if Schwarzenegger’s star power and Ayer’s direction will allow this to gross near End of Watch‘s $13.15 million. Both of Schwarzenegger’s starring vehicles since his comeback haven’t grossed double digits in its opening weekend (excluding The Expendables 2). The Last Stand was a fun movie that made $6.3 million in its opening, and Escape Plan made $9.9 million (so close). Since Arnie obviously doesn’t have as much star power as he once did, but I’m going to say this grosses $9.5 million in its opening weekend.

Here’s how I see the Top 10:

1. Noah: $56.5 million
2. Divergent: $28 million
3. Muppets Most Wanted: $10.883 million
4. Sabotage: $9.5 million
5. The Grand Budapest Hotel: $9 million
6. Bad Words: $6.7 million
7. Mr. Peabody & Sherman: $6.3 million
8. God’s Not Dead: $6 million
9. 300: Rise of An Empire: $4.2 million
10. Need for Speed: $3.8 million

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“The Conjuring” scares a big audience, Snails and Retired Spies do okay, “R.I.P.D.” bombs hard

New releases from the weekend that are still on my watchlist: The ConjuringR.I.P.D.Red 2Turbo. So, all of them!

I’ve realized that I haven’t been a good box office analyst. I’ve been posting my predictions, but neglecting to report the results. This weekend, I’ll change that. At the beginning of 2013, it was looking like this year wouldn’t even match up to 2012 – but it’s catching up at a rapid rate. Through June, 2013 was 2.1% behind 2012. As of the end of this weekend, it is behind 1.1%. That is impressive considering this weekend was 19% behind last year, as “The Dark Knight Rises” single-handedly grossed $160.8 million. It’s looking like 2013 could match 2012’s number with some big blockbusters still to come: “The Wolverine”, “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”, and “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire” this fall, to name a few. Anyway, let’s get to this weekend.

“Turbo” opened to $21.3 million and has earned $31 million through its first five days. That’s the worst opening for a DreamWorks Animation since 2006’s “Wallace and Gromit”, and it’s even less than last year’s “Rise of the Guardians“. It could have legs because of its rewarded ‘A’ Cinemascore, but family audiences chose those yellow minions again (“DM2” earned $24.9 million this weekend) over snail racing. DreamWorks can only hope that snail racing is big overseas. I guess at least this poor outing says “The Smurfs 2” might not do so grandly, as family audiences have only so much money to spend in a month. (But since it opens at the very beginning of August, it might not be affected.)

“The Conjuring” was the big winner this weekend with a huge $41.8 million opening, so take that “The Purge“! It is now the second-largest opening weekend for an R-rated horror movie behind “Paranormal Activity 2”. That’s great for it because it looks really scary and I want to see it. It had a great marketing campaign, it looked terrifying, and people turned out to see it. It also came at a time where there were no horror movies on the market (well besides “The Purge” which is now only in 156 theatres). It will have great box office legs, because it was rewarded an ‘A-‘ Cinemascore, which, for the horror genre, is super rare.

“Red 2” had a soft opening with $18 million. The first movie grossed $21.7 million in its opening, so it seems that audiences thought it looked too similar to its predecessor, a problem “The Expendables 2” faced. I was optimistic with my prediction of $25 million because I thought that since it had really high DVD sales and the first had great legs, “Red 2” would do better business. I was wrong by $7 million. I didn’t factor in that the older audiences that this is aimed at is perfectly content to either wait for the DVD or go during the week when the crowds aren’t as big. Dang it! (By the way, I’ll probably be posting my review of “Red” soon.)

The only movie I was really close with was “R.I.P.D.”, which is standing at 11% on Rotten Tomatoes. I’m seeing it tomorrow, because I like to see everything, but audiences just were not interested in this “Men in Black” rip-off as it only debuted to $12.69 million. (I predicted $12.8M, woo-hoo!) And its budget was $130 million or so. Talk about one of the biggest bombs in recent memory! “Red 2” was its direct competition and that one came out on top. I think this movie looks fun, but audiences just didn’t bite. I’m not surprised one bit.

Here’s how the Top 10 performed! And if you missed any of my reviews, just click on the link to read it.

Title: Result/Prediction/Difference (Over/Under)
1. “The Conjuring”: $41.855M/$37.5M/$4.355M under
2. “Despicable Me 2: $24.906M/$22.473M/$2.433M under
3. “Turbo”: $21.312M/$28.8M/$7.488M over
4. “Grown Ups 2”: $19.872M/$19.5M/$372, 000 under
5. “Red 2”: $18.048M/$25M/$6.952M over
6. “Pacific Rim: $16.002M/$19.825M/$3.823 over
7. “R.I.P.D.”: $12.691M/$12.8M/$109, 000 over
8. “The Heat: $9.303M/$9.025M/$278, 000 under
9. “World War Z: $5.191M/NA/NA
10. “Monsters University: $5.121M/$6M/$879, 000 over

For the four new releases, I was off by a grand total of: $18, 904, 000

For the five holdovers I predicted in the top 10, I was off by a grand total of: $7, 785, 000

Did any of you go to the theatre this weekend? I saw “Grown Ups 2” on Saturday, don’t ask me why. Expect the review tomorrow. 

Box Office Predictions: 7/12-7/14; Monsters & Robots vs. (Apparently) Funny people vs. the Minions

I say ‘apparently funny people’ in the title because I’m not sure how funny the guys of ‘Grown Ups 2’ will be this time around…

There are two new releases coming out this weekend, and those are “Pacific Rim” and “Grown Ups 2”, the sequel to Adam Sandler’s 2010 box office hit.

Pacific Rim“Pacific Rim” looks freaking awesome (I mean, it’s monsters vs. robots – what’s not to like?), and even though the tracking has been low, I’m staying optimistic. Though, if “Grown Ups 2” wins this weekend, I’ll weep. Movies similar to “Pacific Rim” open to $44.63 million. While this film doesn’t have much leading star power, it has an intriguing and original premise, something for fanboys to feast on, a well-respected director found in Guillermo Del Toro, and supporting star power found in Idris Elba and Charlie Day. Like I said, I’m staying optimistic for this movie’s earnings and even though it’ll be a bonafide hit overseas (mostly in Asia), it’s a little harder to predict it for here, especially since the tracking is so all over the place – so I’m going to predict $45 million. (I have this lower than “Despicable Me 2”, but I wouldn’t be mad if this won the weekend. At all. But I will be mad if “Grown Ups 2” beats this.)

GROWN UPS 2The main competition of “Pacific Rim” is “Grown Ups 2”. And as much as the first “Grown Ups” is a guilty pleasure of mine, there’s only one genuine joke in the trailer. The trailer’s also very lazy to me. I think this will make a good amount of money, but I don’t want it to be… But, audiences do like their audiences simple. Though, the first “Grown Ups” that earned $40.5M in its opening weekend came before his awful films such as “Jack and Jill” and “That’s My Boy”. Sandler has an opening average of $24.95 million. This one looks a lot less funny or fresh than the first, and a lot more noxious (the first was PG and this is PG-13). It looks like the main joke is celebrity cameos from Shaquille O’Neal and Taylor Lautner. I guess that’s the first trick in Sandler’s book: Make Taylor Lautner an obvious presence in the trailer, and attract many female pre-teens. Movies similar to “Grown Ups 2” open to $25.57 million. I’m going to predict this one at $38.5 million.

Here’s how I see the Top 10: 

Title/Prediction

1. “Despicable Me 2”: $46, 350, 000 (Review)

2. “Pacific Rim”: $45, 000, 000 (My review will be up tomorrow or Saturday; I’ll try to post it tomorrow, but I’m way too tired to write it now.)

3. “Grown Ups 2”: $38, 500, 000

4. “The Heat”: $15, 750, 000 (Review)

5. “The Lone Ranger”: $13, 980, 000 (Review)

6. “World War Z”: $10, 900, 000 (Review)

7. “Monsters University”: $10, 600, 000 (Review)

8. “Man of Steel”: $7, 025, 000 (Review)

9. “White House Down”: $6, 900, 000

10. “Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain”: $6, 250, 000

What movies are you seeing this weekend? 

Brief-ish Recap of 2013’s Movies So Far

2013 has been a decent year for movies, and it’s improving in both quality, and in regards of box office earnings. And I think it can only get better from here, at least in terms of quality. So far, I’ve seen 36 movies that have been released in 2013, and I’ve missed quite a few as well. Here is my post for the best and worst of 2013 so far. There is a top 10 list, and a bottom five list, and I will post my “Most anticipated movies of Second Half of the Year List” sooner than later. Here’s what I thought of what 2013 has had to offer so far…

The Best of the Year So Far

This is the End“, 2013’s Best Movie So Far & 2013’s Best Surprise

First, the top 10. I have listed the title and the original score in brackets. I’ve decided not to include little blurbs from each review, because that just might become tedious to read with so many titles. If you want to read my thoughts, click on the link to my review. (Note: You might notice that some scores are lower than others, but higher on the list – but that’s because they’ve grown on me since I’ve seen them, and are better than other movies in terms of quality.)

1. This is the End (91), 2. Monsters University (90), 3. 42 (90), 4. The Place Beyond the Pines (88), 5. Fast & Furious 6 (90), 6. Mud (86), 7. Evil Dead (88), 8. Pain & Gain (83), 9. Spring Breakers (75), 10. The Croods (83).

Here’s 11-15: 11. Star Trek Into Darkness (83), 12. The Great Gatsby (82), 13. Warm Bodies (80), 14. Now You See Me (80), 15. Iron Man 3 (80).

Here’s the rest of the movies I’ve seen, ranked from best to worst (in blocks of five, so it’s easier on the eyes): The Last Stand (80); World War Z (75)The Heat (75) Mama (78)20. Oz the Great and Powerful (75).

Epic (74)The Incredible Burt Wonderstone (73); Identity Thief (72); Olympus Has Fallen (70); 25. Snitch (71).

Oblivion (67); Gangster Squad (63)The Purge (57); Man of Steel (50)30. Admission (56), Safe Haven (54).

2013's Worst Movie So Far

Scary Movie 5“, 2013’s Worst Movie So Far (But I don’t think there will be a bigger shitfest this year). 

Here’s the List of Shame, the Bottom Five of the year: After Earth (40)Peeples (38); The Hangover Part III (25)Movie 43 (30); 36. Scary Movie 5 (0).

Here was my Top 12 Most Anticipated Movies of the First Half of the Year: 1. Monsters University; 2. The Place Beyond the Pines; 3. Identity Thief 4. Oz the Great and Powerful; 5. Gangster Squad; 6. 42; 7. Now You See Me; 8. Fast & Furious 6; 9. Man of Steel; 10. Oblivion11. The Purge: 12. Mud.

5 of my 12 most anticipated movies made the Top 10, and 6 made my top 15. “Oz the Great and Powerful” was only slightly satisfying. “Identity Thief”, and “Oblivion” were mildly disappointing. “Gangster Squad” was quite disappointing because it could have potentially been an Oscar contender, but it ended up not knowing if it wanted to be serious or just silly. It was a lightly entertaining gangster movie, apparently much like “The Untouchables”. I’d put “The Hangover Part III” in my Top 15 Anticipated of the First Half, so that is the biggest disappointment of the year because it just wasn’t funny. The third biggest disappointment would be “The Purge”, and the second would be “Man of Steel”.

"The Hangover Part III", 2013's Biggest Disappointment So Far

The Hangover Part III“, 2013’s Biggest Disappointment So Far

The best surprise of the year definitely has to be “This is the End”, even if I was quite excited for it. I knew it was going to be good, but not that good, and especially not movie of the year worthy. Out of the films I wasn’t anticipating at all, “World War Z” was probably the nicest surprise.

These are the movies I missed, but will be checking out. I’ve only included the ones I could envision myself either popping into the DVD player, watching online, or going out to the theater and watching: A Good Day to Die Hard, Aftershock, Antiviral, Before Midnight, Berberian Sound Studio, The Bling Ring, Byzantium, The Call, Dark Skies, Dead Man Down, The East, Frances Ha, G.I. Joe: Retaliation, Ginger & Rosa, Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters, The Host, The Iceman, The Internship, The Kings of Summer, The Lords of Salem, Maniac, Much Ado About Nothing, Quartet, Room 237, The Sapphires, Side Effects, Song for Marion, Stand Up Guys, Stoker, To the Wonder, Trance, Upside Down, Upstream Color, Violet & Daisy, Welcome to the Punch, White House Down.

And finally, here are some statistics: 

Rotten Tomatoes Audience Average Score: 72.55

My Average Score: 69.22

IMDb Average Score: 66.05

Rotten Tomatoes Critics Average Score: 56.55

So there you have it… What’s your favourite movie of the year so far, and your least favourite? I won’t put a poll because there are just too many titles, so let me know in the comments!

Recap of June’s Theatrical Releases

I saw six out of the nine major theatrical releases of June. I still plan on seeing the following from the month of June, in alphabetical order: “Berberian Sound Studio”, “The Bling Ring”, “Byzantium”, “The Internship”, “Maniac”, “Much Ado About Nothing”, “Song for Marion”, “Syrup” (because I love Brittany Snow), “Violet & Daisy”, White House Down”. Considering that the lowest score of June’s new releases was 50 out of 100 (surprisingly “awarded” to “Man of Steel”), it was hardly a bad month for movies. Here’s the ranking of the June’s releases from best to worst, with a blurb from each of my reviews.

This is the End (6/12)

This is the End (6/12) [My review]

“This is an insanely funny movie. Ridiculous, yes, but a sure blast if there ever was one. It’s all good old-fashioned, self-aware bliss. This just shows that a comedy about hanging out with one’s best buds could be a real gem to the genre. Adam Sandler could take quite a few pointers from this comedy.” 91/100. This was my fourth most anticipated movie of June, and it exceeded expectations, and it’s currently my favourite movie of the year thus far. 

IMDb Score: 7.9/10Rotten Tomatoes Critics: 7/10RT Audience: 8/10.

Monsters University (6/21)

Monsters University (6/21) [My review]

“I will always cherish this fantastic film. I will always watch this with a big smile on my face. This is an impressive prequel to “Monsters, Inc.”, and an impressive Pixar movie.” 90/100. This was my most anticipated movie of June, and it truly satisfied.

IMDb Score: 7.8/10RTC: 6.7/10; RTA: 8.4/10.

World War Z (6/21)

World War Z (6/21) [My review]

“The story’s a good one, as far as ‘find the cure’ movies go. Since I have not read the book, I cannot comment on any similarities or big differences. All I can say is, it’s a story that plays well on the screen. I like that Drew Goddard has a hand in the screenplay; because he has talent. It’s a traditional, but very enjoyable ‘find the cure’ type of film.” 75/100. This was my tenth most anticipated movie of June, so it really impressed. 

IMDb Score: 7.3/10RTC: 6.2/10RTA: 7.6/10.

The Heat (6/28)

The Heat (6/28) [My review]

“The humour is raunchy as hell, but usually funny as hell. When I wasn’t laughing at the jokes, I was at least smirking a little. When it isn’t being hilarious, the likeable chemistry between Bullock and McCarthy really carries it along. The movie balances out to a fun, predictable, but hysterical time at the movies.” 75/100. This was my seventh most anticipated movie of June, so it did satisfy. 

IMDb Score: 7.1/10RTC: 6.0/10; RTA: 8.0/10.

The Purge (6/7)

The Purge (6/7) [My review]

“The concept helps make this movie memorable. However, this rushed home invasion flick/intriguing social commentary ends up being incredibly average. It’s disappointing, and while it has some worthwhile menacing villains, it’s the latest movie to the Great Concept, Poor Execution category.” 57/100. This was my third most anticipated movie of June, so it was truly disappointing.

IMDb Score: 5.6/10; RTC: 5.1/10; RTA: 6.0/10.

Man of Steel (6/14)

Man of Steel (6/14) [My review]

“I do not appreciate the constant changes in tone throughout the feature. It goes from big, stupid action to character-driven drama that feels real. It becomes bothersome quickly, and it does not make for effective storytelling.” 50/100. This was my second most anticipated movie of June, so it was a big let-down.

IMDb Score: 7.8/10; RTC: 6.3/10RTA: 8.0.

Here are some statistics: 

IMDb Ranking: 1. “This is the End” (7.9), 2. “Man of Steel” (7.8), 2. “Monsters University” (7.8), 4. “World War Z” (7.3), 5. “The Heat” (7.1), 6. “The Purge” (5.6). Average score: 7.25/10. 

RT Critics Ranking: 1. “This is the End” (7.0), 2. “Monsters University” (6.7), 3. “Man of Steel” (6.3), 4. “World War Z” (6.2), 5. “The Heat” (6.0), “The Purge” (5.1). Average score: 6.21/10. 

RT Audience Ranking: 1. “Monsters University” (8.4), 2. “The Heat” (8.0), 2. “Man of Steel” (8.0), 2. “This is the End” (8.0), 5. “World War Z” (7.6), 6. “The Purge” (6.0). Average score: 7.66/10.

My Average score: 73/100. (Adjusted [excluding lowest grade]: 77.6/100.)

What movies did you enjoy out of June’s releases, and which ones did you hate? There were a total six votes in my Most Anticipated Movies of June poll (4 to “Man of Steel”, 1 to “This is the End”, and 1 to “Monsters University”, which was my vote). Did your most anticipated movie satisfy or disappoint the hell out of you? Let me know in the comments!

Also: I’ll be posting my Best of the Year So Far article sometime this weekend or early next week. Stay tuned! 

 

Box Office Predictions: ‘Despicable Me 2’ to crush ‘The Lone Ranger’

box office (1)Despicable Me is one of those universally loved movies. It’s charming, entertaining, heartfelt, and hilarious. Since Monsters University showed that families are willing to spend good amounts of money on animated flicks, Despicable Me 2 is in great condition. And, families might have held out on that – to wait for this. Movies similar to this open to $42.52 million. Despicable Me opened to $56.39 million. There is only three years between the original and this sequel, and that’s great in the animated realm – considering the movies take so long to make. (And there’s a Minions movie coming out December 2014! Woo-hoo! I love those little guys. It’s funny to think that they weren’t made into big henchmen because the studio didn’t have enough funding.) This is one of my most anticipated movies of the year – if not the most anticipated – so to say I’m excited would be an understatement. DM2 has scheduling to its advantage, because Monsters University came out 12 days ago, and that’s almost its only main competition. There’s also the PG-13 rated The Lone Ranger for family audiences and Western movies fans – but I’m not sure how many families will choose that over this. While I don’t think this will exactly manage $100 million in its first 5-day frame, I think it will get close to it; so I’m predicting a $98.3 million opening. 

The Lone Ranger

The other main film debuting this weekend is The Lone Ranger, a Western starring Johnny Depp as Tonto and Armie Hammer as the Lone Ranger; and it is from the creators and director of Pirates of the Caribbean. I think Johnny Depp will give a very similar performance to that of Cap’n Jack Sparrow – but it’ll still be entertaining, nonetheless. I don’t have many expectations for the movie – so hopefully it’ll surprise me. And hopefully it’s decent, too, because the last Pirates disappointed the hell outta me. Movies similar to this open to $43.27 million. I think the scheduling will really screw this up, though. I think this could be a decent money-maker, but the reported $250-million budget is a bit insane. And whoever thought Disney would ever earn that money back is very insane. It doesn’t seem to use a whole lot of CGI, so a good chunk of that must went to Johnny Depp and director Gore Verbinski. Anyway, I’m predicting $51.7 million for its first five-day frame. I think it’s more than likely Disney will be crying about this one for awhile.

Here’s how I see the top 10
1. Despicable Me 2: $76, 300, 000 (5-day: $98.3 million)
2. The Lone Ranger: $35, 700, 000 (5-day: $51.7 million)
3. Monsters University: $24, 075, 000 (my review)
4. The Heat: $23, 600, 000 (my review)
5. World War Z: $15, 050, 000 (my review)
6. White House Down: $13, 475, 000
7. Man of Steel: $10, 625, 000 (my review)
8. This is the End: $5, 600, 000 (my review)
9. Now You See Me: $3, 950, 000 (my review)
10. Fast & Furious 6: $1, 850, 000 (my review)

Despicable Me 2

Box Office Predictions: ‘The Heat’, ‘White House Down’

 

The HeatComedy movies have performing fairly well so far this year. A few bombed (Movie 43), a few opened to expectations (This is the End), and a few impressed (Identity Thief). Now, it’s time to see how the Sandra Bullock/Melissa McCarthy buddy comedy will perform. I think it will out-do Identity Thief, but not by a huge amount. It seems extremely vulgar, but funny. This is going up against White House Down and the competition of World War Z, and Monsters University in their second weekends. This and WHD are in a real battle of the sexes. I’m looking forward to seeing this, and movies similar to this open to an average $24.68 million. Melissa McCarthy is pretty popular, as well. I’m indifferent about her; I like on her on TV’s Mike and Molly, but I’m not a huge fan of the kind-of role she plays in Bridesmaids: dirty and vulgar. I don’t hate that role, because it’s good once or twice, but I think it’s going to become tiring very quickly. I think the role could be gold, however, matched up with Sandra Bullock. And director Paul Fieg. I think this could find some great success this weekend, mostly because there aren’t many other films targeting females in the market right now (and so many are for men), so I’m predicting it at $41.9 million.

White House DownWhite House Down looks pretty good, but it’s as if we’ve already seen it earlier this year with Olympus Has Fallen. That movie earned $30.37 million in its opening weekend, so this really should gross more than that surprise hit, with bigger stars and director. I also think the advertising campaign is kind-of brilliant, in the way that they only portray the villain as a familiar voice. I think it really adds to the mystery of it all. Movies similar to this open to $31.25 million. Channing Tatum has an average opening of $22.6 million. Jamie Foxx has an average opening of $19.2 million. Roland Emmerich, the director, has an average opening of $39.15 million, which I think is the ideal ballpark for this. His movies are almost always lots of fun (even though one of his more serious pictures, Anonymous, was very boring). In this weekend’s battle of the sexes, I think this actioner will lose to The Heat and earn $40.3 million. The two movies might just be going head to head all weekend.

box office

Here’s how I see the Top 10

1. Monsters University [review]: $44, 900, 000
2. The Heat: $41, 900, 000
3. White House Down: $40, 300, 000
4. World War Z [review]: $28, 160, 000
5. Man of Steel [review]: $23, 600, 000
6. This is the End [review]: $8, 500, 000
7. Now You See Me [review]: $5, 300, 000
8. Fast & Furious 6 [review]: $3, 345, 000
9. The Purge [review]: $2, 400, 000
10. The Internship: $2, 100, 000